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I know it's super early for 2010 IDP rankings. However, I always like to start them early and get a foundation built. I will continually update these rankings throughout the offseason to reflect changes in free agency, defensive schemes, defensive playing time, rookie draft selections, etc.

I would also love to get feedback from my readers. Often times, we get stuck in our own philosophies and tendencies. So, it's nice to get a different perspective on things. Your comments will definitely influence my rankings.

Drafting Philosophy:
Defensive backs have the most variability in point production from year-to-year. In other words, your top 20 defensive backs in 2010 could be quite different from your top 20 defensive backs in 2009 (especially in "big play leagues").

Much of this variability is because, many times, a defensive back's production is heavily tied to the performance of that specific team's front seven. Their production is also heavily tied to how they are used in the defensive scheme (especially safeties). For example, Roman Harper started off the 2009 season very well. However, after both of New Orleans' cornerbacks got injured, they started playing Harper in coverage more as opposed to bringing him up close to the line of scrimmage to stop the run. Consequently, his tackle numbers severely dipped.

In addition, the defensive back position, more than any other position has the most substantial amount of fantasy producers on the waiver wire because many unexpected fantasy performers emerge from the defensive back position throughout the season (e.g. Bernard Pollard).

With this being said, I find it hard to use one of my first defensive picks on a defensive back. In reality, there aren't many "locks" at that this position as there are at the linebacker position (e.g. Patrick Willis, Jon Beason, London Fletcher, etc.). Therefore, I usually try to grab a solid veteran fantasy producer like LCB Antoine Winfield or SS Brian Dawkins and get riskier at this position with my other picks. Not only does this free me up to use higher draft picks on other defensive positions, but it also allows me to more easily drop players during the season to pick up potential defensive back studs off of the waiver wire.

And in case you didn't love Brett Favre enough, here is a short little video clip: Brett Favre Doing His Rendition of "Pants on the Ground."

Scoring System:
Solo Tackle = 2 points
Assist = 1 point
Sack = 7 points
Interception = 12 points
Fumble Recovery = 5 points

Key:
FA = 2010 Free Agent
DSC = Possible Defensive Scheme Change
S = Sleeper/Undervalued Player
B = Bust/Overvalued Player
R = Injury Risk

Tier 1

1. FS Eric Weddle (SD) - Weddle was the number one defensive back on most fantasy rankings heading into the 2009 season. His fantasy numbers took a hit this year because of lingering injury issues. Heading into next season injury-free, he should be able to rebound next year and reclaim his spot as the top fantasy defensive back. R

2. SS Bernard Pollard (HOU) - What a story this is; after being cut by the Chiefs before the season started, Pollard signed with the Texans in Week 4 and wasted no time in becoming a fantasy stud. In 14 games, Pollard had 82 solo tackles, 19 assists, 3 FRs, 4 INTs, 1.5 sacks, and 2 defensive TDs. I wouldn't expect 2 defensive TDs again, but Pollard does provide the ultimate mix of dependable tackling and big play production. FA

3. SS Tyvon Branch (OAK) - Branch had a very nice tackling year by registering 97 solo tackles and 26 assists and is a top 5 safety in tackling-heavy leagues. Most of his value resides in the fact that he plays in the SS position in Oakland which has proven to be a very lucrative position in the past (e.g. Gibril Wilson). As long as Branch can hold off second round draft pick, Mike Mitchell, he's worth an early round selection.

4. SS Yeremiah Bell (MIA) - Over the last two seasons, Bell has averaged over 95 solo tackles; it doesn't get much better than that for a defensive back. Bell is often times brought up close to the line of scrimmage for run support and is therefore used in a similar fashion to that of a linebacker. Bell is one of the safest choices at the defensive back position. You can expect 90+ solo tackles again next season.

5. FS Oshiomogho Atogwe (STL) - Atogwe is one of the best ballhawks in the league. He always seems to be around the ball and, consequently, he does a wonderful job of producing big plays as well as solid tackle numbers. Playing on the Rams is an added bonus since their defense is consistently on the field for much of the game. Atogwe should remain in St. Louis and, now that he's healthy, return to top 5 form. FA

6. SS Brian Dawkins (DEN) - Yes, Dawkins is old as dirt (36 to be exact). However, you will be hard-pressed to find a more consistent fantasy defensive back. Over his nine seasons in the league, Dawkins has consistently been a top 20 performer and his move to Denver has obviously taken his value to another level. I wouldn't expect 95 solo tackles again (a career high) but, as long as he doesn't retire, Dawkins looks to be a solid play heading into next season.

Tier 2

7. SS Roman Harper (NO) - Harper started off the season extremely hot. He was consistently putting up 7-9 total tackles per week. However, because of injuries at both cornerback positions, New Orleans stopped putting Harper in the box and used him more in coverage. This hurt his overall 2009 numbers (they were still solid). With the cornerbacks healthy again, look for Harper to further improve upon his 2009 numbers.FA

8. FS Dashon Goldson (SF) - Goldson got the opportunity to become an every game starter this season and he ran with it. I really like this kid. He gives you a good combination of tackles (95 total tackles) and big plays (4 INTs and 3 sacks). Under defensive-minded head coach Mike Singeltary, Goldson is only going to get better. S

9. FS Louis Delmas (DET) - Delmas, in my opinion, will come into the 2010 draft, being slightly overvalued. Yes, he was the 4th leading scorer for defensive backs in my scoring system. However, those numbers are highly inflated to due to two defensive touchdowns and a safety. When looking purely at his tackle numbers, he had 64 solos tackles and 29 assists and only 2 INTs which are decent, but not fantastic numbers. I look for Delmas to improve upon his tackle numbers next season but at the expense of his big play production. B

Tier 3

10. LCB Charles Woodson (GB) - I typically don't like drafting "big play" cornerbacks like Woodson because their production often times varies from year-to-year. However, Woodson is a rarity, in that he has shown that he can come up with big plays year in and year out. In addition, he had 71 solo tackles last year which is great for a cornerback. Although, I wouldn't expect the same level of tackle production next year, Woodson deserves to be a top 15 pick.

11. FS Antoine Bethea (IND) - Bethea has managed to string together two top 20 seasons in a row from his free safety position. Much of the attention in Indy goes to the oft-injured SS Bob Sanders. However, Bethea is the true fantasy star of the Colts secondary. Look for Bethea to continue his trend of top 20 finishes in 2010. FA

12. LCB Antoine Winfield (MIN) - Winfield's perceived value will probably take a slight hit heading into the 2010 draft because his overall 2009 stats were below average due to injury problems. In my opinion, Winfield is the best tackling cornerback in the league and he plays in a defensive scheme that uses some Tampa-2, which gives Winfield above average tackle opportunities. With this being said, Winfield, when healthy, is a low DB1/high DB2. S, R

13. LCB Charles Tillman (CHI) - Tillman's production dropped substantially in 2009 in large part due to reoccurring injuries. Tillman is one of the top 5 tackling fantasy cornerbacks and he also provides decent big play upside. If he can stay healthy, he remains a top 15 selection for defensive backs. R

14. SS Troy Polamalu (PIT) - Polamalu is overrated in the same way as SS Bob Sanders. He's a fantastic NFL player in real life but when it comes to fantasy football, he's more of a tier 3 type of player. "Mr. Head and Shoulders" does have a knack for finding the ball, however, and has top 15 value if he can manage to stay healthy for a full season. With all this in mind, don't be fooled by the big name and reach for Polamalu too early though (i.e. Tier 1 or Tier 2). B, R

15. SS Adrian Wilson (ARI) - I remember the days when Adrian Wilson was the best DB since sliced bread (circa 2004-2006). His disappointing 2007 and 2008 seasons left Wilson undrafted in many IDP leagues in 2009. However, under new defensive coordinator Bill Davis' aggressive defensive scheme, Wilson has had a resurgence. I like Wilson's big play upside along with his run-stopping ability. Consequently, I have Wilson reentering the top 20. Welcome back!

16. SS/WLB Bryan Scott (BUF) - Honestly, I have no idea where to rank Scott because, as of right now, he's a man without a position. In my scoring system, Scott averaged over 17 points per game largely due to the Bills switching him to WLB during the middle of the season. If the Bills opt to use Scott in this hybrid SS/LB role again next year, he will be a top 10 defensive back. However, his value slides quite substantially if he is moved back solely to the SS position (top 20-30). There's also a chance he doesn't start at all. With this being said, Scott's ranking is likely to change during the offseason, so keep your eye on his status. FA, DSC, S

17. SS Jermaine Phillips (TB) - Phillips was on many IDP owners watchlists when the season began and he probably would have had a solid season if he had not went down with a season-ending injury in week 2. In his place, Tanard Jackson, but together a top 10 year. I foresee Phillips picking up where Jackson left off next season assuming he can overcome his personal legal issues and remain the starting SS in Tampa. If not, then Tanard Jackson will more than likely slide into this #17 spot. FA, R

Tier 4

18. FS Dawan Landry (BALT) - Landry was used more in stopping the run this year than in previous years and his tackle numbers reflected this fact. Landry had 100 total tackles and he threw in 5 INTs. I expect some subsidence of his tackle numbers but not enough to bump him out of the top 20. In addition, the Jets have shown some offseason interest in obtaining Landry; going to the Jets could improve his value even further. FA

19. FS Darren Sharper (NO) - Many readers may be wondering why I have the #3 2009 point scorer for DBs listed so low: his numbers were significantly inflated. Sharper had 4 defensive touchdowns in 2009 and 9 interceptions. You take away those 4 defensive touchdowns and Sharper falls back to a mid-level option at best. And I'm willing to bet my left nut that he doesn't have 4 defensive TDs again next year. OK, maybe not my nut. But, you get the point. FA, B

20. RCB Richard Marshall (CAR) - Marshall, along with Charles Tillman and Antoine Winfield, is one of the top 5 tackling cornerbacks in the league. In all four years in the league, Marshall has had 68 solo tackles or more and usually throws in a couple of sacks and a couple of INTs. He has a fairly significant chance of being a top 25 performer every year. However, he is a free agent and much of his value resides in the fact that Carolina uses the Tampa-2 defensive scheme quite a bit. If he goes to another team, he will more than likely fall out of the top 30. FA

21. SS Erik Coleman (ATL) - If you're in a tackle-heavy league, Coleman is one of the better options you have at this position. In 2009, he registered 116 total tackles. In fact Coleman has had 100 total tackles or more in 5 out of his 6 seasons in the NFL. On the down side, he doesn't generate many big-plays. S

22. FS Jordan Babineaux (SEA) - Mr. Babineaux finished as the 17th higest scoring defensive back in my scoring system last year. He started off the season slowly, however, he gained momentum as the season progressed and ended up finishing with 105 total tackles. Babineaux is a solid DB3 entering into next season. DSC

23. FS Danieal Manning (CHI) - Through the first 10 games of the season, Manning was one of the best fantasy safeties in the league. However, he was benched by Head Coach Lovie Smith in Week 11 for blowing too many coverages. It remains to be seen how the Bears will use Manning moving forward. However, I expect him to be the starter next year and to put up top 25 numbers. But, lets wait and see.

Tier 5

24. SS Brandon Meriweather (NE) - Although Meriweather finished within the top 15 DBs for points scored, almost 1/4 points came in one game. With this being said, I really don't think Meriweather is a top 20 defensive back. However, he doesn't have a ton of competition for tackles in New England and he's young and still learning, so he remains in the top 25. B

25. FS LaRon Landry (WASH) - Landry made significant strides last season in becoming a top 30 defensive back. He managed to post a career high in solo tackles with 76 and he missed the last game of the season. I expect the former sixth overall pick to make further strides in 2010 and possibly crack the top 25. DSC

26. SS Kenny Phillips (NYG) - Phillips entered the 2009 season on many IDP sleeper lists and was performing well until he went down with a season-ending knee injury in week 2. Backup safety, C.C. Brown, had some monster games in Phillips' absence (back-to-back double digit solo games in week 6 and 7), granted much of that production was due to Brown having absolutely no cover skills. If Phillips can fully recover from his 2009 injury, he should have good value moving into the 2010 season. DSC, R, S

27. SS Chinedum "Nedu" Ndukwe (CIN) - "Nedu" put up some nice tackle numbers while filling in for Roy "Horse Collar" Williams. In the 14 games that he started, he posted 70 solo tackles, 29 assists, 1 sack, and 2 interceptions. The Bengals have stated that resigning SS Roy Williams isn't a priority which means that Ndukwe will likely become the starter next season. I wouldn't expect a ton of big plays out of Chinedum, but I project him for 75-85 solo tackles and 20-25 assists.

28. SS Mike Brown (KC) - Mike or "Michelle" Brown, as I like to call him, surprisingly finished in the top 10 for points scored at this position in 2009. Much of this was due to his above average tackle opportunities (KC's defense was on the field a lot). I think the Chiefs are going to be much improved next year and consequently Browns numbers will take a hit. And there's always a good chance he gets hurt. Hence, the lower ranking. FA, R

29. RCB Cortland Finnegan (TEN) - Finnegan, similar to teammate Nick Harper, is a cornerback at which many opposing QBs love to throw at. Consequently, Finnegan typically has above average tackle and interception opportunities. For the second straight season, Finnegan had 5 INTs. For these reasons, Finnegan makes it into the top 30.

30. SS Quintin Mikell (PHI) - I've never been a huge fan of Mikell's. It seems as though every week in which I pick him up, he burns me. However, over the course of a full season his numbers tend to average out. In fact, in each of the last two seasons, Mikell has finished with top 30 numbers and he set a career high for total tackles last season with 97. He's usually a dependable DB3.

31. SS Chris Hope (TEN) - Hope is one of the more consistent defensive backs in the league. He doesn't have a very high point ceiling but he is usually good for 75-90 solo tackles and 3 or 4 interceptions which, in a typical year, would place him around the outskirts of the top 30 defensive back point producers. If you are risk-averse, Hope is probably a good selection for you.

Tier 6

32. LCB Darrelle Revis (NYJ) - In my opinion, Revis is the best shutdown cornerback in the NFL, which is usually bad from a fantasy standpoint because opposing QBs tend to throw away from him. However, Revis managed to intercept seven passes last year and five the year before that. He finished with the 25 most points for a defensive back last year. However, I think we will see a drop in his interception and tackle totals next year because teams will throw at him even less next year. B

33. FS Jairus Byrd (BUF) - Byrd was quite impressive will filling in for the injured Donte Whitner. He managed nine interceptions in games 5 through 14 of the regular season. It's still unclear who will be starting in Buffalo's secondary. If I had to guess, I would assume Donte Whitner will be starting at SS and Byrd will be starting at FS with George Wilson rotating in on nickel packages. If Byrd can improve upon his tackle numbers, he could be a very nice late-round selection. DSC

34. SS Bob Sanders (IND) - Sanders reminds me a lot of Troy Polamalu. He is a great NFL player and solid fantasy defensive back when healthy. However, he is hardly ever healthy. If he could string together a full season of games, he would likely be a top 20 DB. Chances are good this won't happen, so temper you're expectations. If you're in need of a playmaker and are willing to take a substantial risk, Sanders is your guy. B, R

35. SS Michael Lewis (SF) - Lewis provides consistency at a position where that trait is difficult to find. He has averaged 65+ solo tackles for six of the last seven seasons. He doesn't have much big play upside however and the emergence of Dashon Goldson may hurt his numbers slightly. Nonetheless, Lewis still remains a decent DB3 option.

36. SS Donte Whitner (BUF) - Overall, Whitner hasn't lived up to his hype coming out of college. However, I firmly believe that he would have had a very solid year if he hadn't got injured in week 3. The safety positions in Buffalo seem to be a gold mine for fantasy points, however, their secondary is quite crowded right now, and it remains to be seen who the starters will be. I think Whitner is the favorite to start at SS next season ahead of George Wilson. DSC, FA, S

37. RCB Cedric Griffin (MIN) - Griffin would be ranked about 10 spots higher if he didn't tear his ACL in the NFC championship. This injury will likely sideline for the start of the season. If you're league has a big bench or allows you to IR a player, Griffin could be a nice late-round selection. He has averaged 76 solo tackles per year over the last three years and plays in a Cover 2 scheme that gives him ample tackle opportunities. R

38. LCB DeAngelo Hall (WAS) - Hall's performance has been pretty steady the last three seasons. He's usually good for around 60 solo tackles, 10 assists, and 4 or 5 interceptions. His 2009 numbers were slightly lower than usual because he missed three games due to injury. I would expect Hall to finish within the top 40 defensive backs next season. DSC

39. FS Kerry Rhodes (NYJ) - In my opinion, Rhodes is a highly overrated fantasy player. He really hasn't been a viable fantasy option since 2007 and he had the lowest tackle totals of his career last year. I'm only ranking him at this spot because he has showed that he could be an elite fantasy defensive back in the past and although I think Rhodes won't return to that elite status, he does have the benefit of playing under defensive guru Rex Ryan. B

40. FS Pat Chung (NE) - "Wang" Chung was a high draft selection of the Patriots last season and he will likely become the starting FS replacing Brandon McGowan. McGowan showed that this position could be productive from a fantasy standpoint and I believe Chung has the capability to produce low DB2/high DB3 numbers. However, he is young and inexperienced and it's hard to tell exactly when things will click for him. S

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Labels: 2010 IDP Draft Rankings

Wednesday, January 13, 2010

2010 IDP Draft Rankings - Defensive Backs

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