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I know it's super early for 2010 IDP rankings. However, I always like to start them early and get a foundation built. I will continually update these rankings throughout the offseason to reflect changes in free agency, defensive schemes, defensive playing time, rookie draft selections, etc.

I would also love to get feedback from my readers. Often times, we get stuck in our own philosophies and tendencies. So it's nice to get a different perspective on things. Your comments will definitely influence my rankings.

Drafting Philosophy:
Defensive lineman are by far the most inconsistent fantasy point producers during the year. Many lineman will go three or four weeks without registering a sack and then, exactly when you drop them, they have a multiple sack game. This can be extremely frustrating for fantasy owners. In addition, there aren't many unknown lineman that emerge during the season and consequently the waiver wire is usually not packed with worthwhile fantasy defensive lineman.

With this being said, in order to lessen my "cognitive dissonance", I try to use many of my early round defensive draft picks on defensive lineman. Obtaining guys like Jared Allen and Justin Tuck allows me to plug them in my roster and not worry about their ups and downs throughout the season, since they have proven their consistency throughout their careers.

Also, when you're trying to fill that last defensive lineman position, I prefer to go with younger, high risk/high reward players such as Everette Brown or Connor Barwin as opposed to the safer, veteran players such as Richard Seymour or Albert Haynesworth. This philosophy is reflected in my lower-tier rankings.

Since were on the topic of defensive lineman, here is a funny audio clip: Sex Education with Al Michaels and Jared Allen.

Scoring System:
Solo Tackle = 2 points
Assist = 1 point
Sack = 7 points
Interception = 12 points
Fumble Recovery = 5 points

Key:
FA = 2010 Free Agent
DSC = Possible Defensive Scheme Change
S = Sleeper/Undervalued Player
B = Bust/Overvalued Player
R = Injury Risk

Tier 1

1. RDE Jared Allen (MIN) - This is an obvious one. Allen was the top fantasy lineman by a substantial margin in 2009. Not only does he get to the quarterback on a consistent basis, he seems to come up with a handful of big plays every year. Allen provides the largest relative fantasy value of any defensive lineman and should therefore be one of the first defensive players selected.

Tier 2

2. RDE Justin Tuck (NYG) - Tuck had his worst season in three seasons and he still finished as the eighth leading scorer for defensive lineman in my scoring system. Keep in mind that Tuck was struggling with injury problems the whole season and that the Giants defensive line severly underperformed, both of which greatly limited his production. Heading into the 2010 season, with a clean bill of health and an improved defensive line, Tuck should be able to return to top form. DSC, R

3. RDE Trent Cole (PHI) - Cole has been a model of consistency over the last four seasons. During that span, he has averaged over 10 sacks per season and over 60 total tackles. Defensive lineman are the most inconsistent fantasy producers. With this being said, Cole becomes a valuable commodity in the IDP world.

4. RDE Julius Peppers (CAR) - Peppers answered all the doubters this season by registering 10.5 sacks to follow up his 14.5 sack season of a year ago. This marks the fifth time in eight seasons that Peppers has registered double digit sacks. He is a free agent heading into the 2010 season and has about "40 percent chance to stay in Carolina." However, it shouldn't matter much where Peppers ends up. FA

5. RDE Mario Williams (HOU) - Williams had somewhat of an off-year in 2009 by compiling only nine sacks. However, over his last three seasons in the league, he has averaged 12 sacks per year. The possible emergence of Connor Barwin at LDE could take some pressure off of Williams and allow him to return to his double digit sack production of 2007 and 2008.

Tier 3

6. RDE/ROLB Terrell Suggs (BALT) - Suggs in one of the safest choices at defensive lineman. He is usually a lock for 65-80 total tackles and eight or more sacks. His 2009 sack numbers (5.5 sacks) seem a bit disappointing. However, keep in mind that Suggs missed three games due to injury which lowered his overall numbers. A healthy Suggs should be able to produce his typical fantasy numbers in 2010. S, R

7. LDE Robert Mathis (IND) - Mathis' 2009 numbers are bit deceiving. Yes, he did have 9.5 sacks. However, all 9.5 of those sacks were registered during the first 12 games of the season. Mathis only registered one tackle and no sacks during the last five games of the season due to injury issues. If he had played a full injury-free season, he probably would have had 13-15 sacks. As long as Freeney continues to draw the attention of defenses, Mathis will be a top 10 fantasy DL.

8. RDE Will Smith (NO) - Smith was sure "getting jiggy wit' it" in 2009 by sacking the quarterback 13.5 times. Personally, I think the "Fresh Prince" played a little over his head in 2009 and may be somewhat overvalued heading into the 2010 draft. However, he does have the advantage of playing on the Saints defense where he has plenty of sack opportunities since opposing teams are usually trailing the Saints and have to throw to catch up. B

9. RDE Andre Carter (WAS) - Carter obviously benefited from the addition of big daddy Haynesworth in the middle of Washington's defensive line. Teams focusing a lot of attention on Albert freed up Carter for a career year in which he managed to sack the quarterback 11 times. Carter is getting a little long in the tooth; however he still has at least one more good year left in him. DSC

Tier 4

10. RDE Dwight Freeney (IND) - In my opinion, Freeney is overrated and always has been. As a like to say, there are three things in life that are inevitable: death, taxes, and someone taking Dwight Freeney too early in a fantasy draft. Yes, he has averaged 12 sacks over the last two seasons. However, he just doesn't generate enough tackles to warrant top 8 consideration. Excluding solo tackles obtained from sacking the quarterback, Freeney had only six solo tackles. In my scoring system, that puts him as the 20th ranked defensive lineman. Keep in mind though, if you're in a league that rewards heavily for sacks, Freeney may be of extra value to you. B

11. LDE Ray Edwards (MIN) - Edwards really exploded onto the IDP this season with 9 sacks. Obviously, Edwards benefited greatly from having the beast known as Jared Allen drawing double teams on the opposite side of the defensive line. Allen continuing to draw the attention of opposing offenses should free Edwards up to produce similar stats to his 2009 season. He may,however, see a slight decrease in numbers now that opposing offenses know about him. FA, S

12. RDE Darnell Dockett (ARI) - Dockett's numbers have never been overly impressive. However, he did finish as the number 10 lineman in my scoring system by having both solid tackle (54 total tackles) and sack (7.5 sacks) numbers. Dockett should be able to replicate his 2009 numbers next year.

13. RDE Aaron Schobel (BUF) - There has been some speculation that Schobel is going to retire in the offseason. Obviously, if he does retire, his value drops to nothing. However, if he chooses to come back to Buffalo for another year, he should be able compile 8-11 sacks. Schobel has had 8 or more sacks in six of his last eight seasons and is therefore one of the safer draft selections at the defensive lineman position. DSC

Feb. 10 Update: The Bills have announced their transfer to a 3-4 defense next season. This hurts the value of Schobel moving forward. He was already an iffy selection because of his age and possible retirement, but his chances for another top 10 season are further diminished by playing in a 3-4 defensive scheme. He will be facing more double-teams and will have a more difficult route to the quarterback. Consequently, his ranking has fallen from #10 to #13.

14. LDE Patrick Kerney (SEA) - Kerney really struggled this season and ended up disappointing many fantasy owners by only coming up with six sacks. In his defense, he was battling an elbow injury for most of the season. During the offseason, Kerney will be having surgery to correct his elbow problems and, consequently, he should be able to rebound next year (if he doesn't decide to retire). DSC, R

15. RDE Justin Smith (SF) - Words cannot describe how atrocious Smith was this season. Through 15 games of the season, he only had 2.5 sacks. He finished the year with six sacks because he registered 3.5 sacks against the lowly Rams in the final game of the season. With this being said, Smith still finished as the 12th highest scoring lineman. The fact remains that Smith is one of the better tackling lineman and is therefore a fairly safe pick to be a top 20 defensive lineman.

16. LDE Mathias Kiwanuka (NYG) - I really like Kiwanuka heading into the 2010 season. At this point in time, he looks to have a slight hold on the starting LDE position in New York. "Special K" has shown that he can produce when given the opportunity (8 sacks in 2008 as a full-time starter) and he will surely benefit from playing opposite RDE Justin Tuck. Look for Kiwanuka to be a solid DL2 next season. DSC, S

Feb. 10 Update: Giants LDE Osi Umenyiora has announced that if he isn't the starting LDE for the 2010 that he will retire. This may force the Giants into starting Umenyiora over Kiwanuka. Obviously, if this happens, Kiwanuka's value falls somewhat. I've adjusted Kiwanuka's ranking from #14 to #16 to reflect this news.

Tier 5

17. RDE/WLB Trevor Scott (OAK) - The Raiders used Scott in a hybrid DE/OLB role towards the end of the 2009 season, similar to what Baltimore does with Terrell Suggs, and he produced some nice numbers. If the Raiders choose to keep using Scott in this fashion next year, he should be a solid DL2. S

18. RDE Chris Long (STL) - I was high on Long coming into the 2009 season and he really disappointed. He failed to register a sack until Week 8; however he had five sacks the rest of the season. I think Long is going to breakout next year and show people why he was the 2nd overall pick back in 2008, especially if the Rams draft DT Suh with the first overall pick in the upcoming draft. S

19. RDE Greg "Stylez" White (TB) - The "(Sack) Artist Formerly Known as Greg" come through with a solid season. All of White's 6.5 sacks came after the Buccaneers traded RDE Gaines Adams in Week 5. With Adams gone, White should be able to further improve upon his 2009 numbers. In addition, the Bucs will probably use their #3 overall draft pick on a defensive tackle which will do nothing but help White's numbers. S

20. RDE Randy Starks (MIA) - Starks came out of the woodwork this season and strung together a solid year of production with 42 solo tackles and 7 sacks. Starks surprisingly finished as the ninth best lineman in my scoring system. However, I'm still a little skeptical about Starks due to the fact that he is a defensive end in a 3-4 system and is therefore more likely to wear down during the course of an entire season.

21. LDE Calais Campbell (ARI) - Campbell took advantage of teams focusing on Pro-Bowl RDE Darnell Dockett by getting to the quarterback 6.5 times. Campbell is only going into his 3rd season and is a talented player who should only improve with time. I expect similar numbers in 2010.

Tier 6

22. RDE Antwan Odom (CIN) - Odom had 8 sacks in his first five games of the season before going down with a season-ending knee injury. I think Odom is going to be severely overvalued heading into the 2010 fantasy draft. The Bengals' defensive line hasn't been a very fruitful place for fantasy players lately and, keep in mind that, 5 of Odom's 8 sacks came against Aaron Rodgers and his offensive line (at the time approximately named "Baby Swiss"). B, R

23. LDE Chris Kelsay (BUF) - Much of Kelsay's production depends on if RDE Aaron Schobel retires or not. Kelsay isn't good enough to work through double teams, which is exactly what he will be forced to do if Schobel retires and the Bills don't find an adequate replacement. If Schobel stays, Kelsay should be able to remain a top 20 defensive lineman. DSC

Feb. 10 Update: The Bills have announced their transfer to a 3-4 defense next season. This move hurts the value of pretty much all of the starting Bills defensive lineman including Kelsay. Much of Kelsay's production was due to him getting one-on-one matchups. His role in a 3-4 system will be to occupy and hold the offensive lineman so that the linebackers can get to their respective gaps. He won't be able to explode into a specific gap like he did a 4-3 system. Kelsay isn't a good enough player to put up great numbers in a system such as this. Thus, his ranking falls from #18 to #23.

24. NT Jay Ratliff (DAL) - Ratliff is one of the few nose tackles in the league who is actually a viable fantasy option. Ratliff has finished in the top 25 for defensive lineman in each of the past two years. With this being said, he has pretty much maxed out his upside. However, is a pretty safe bet to finish in the top 30 for defensive lineman.

25. NT Kelly Gregg (BALT) - Kelly Gregg, similar to Jay Ratliff, is one of the few interior lineman that are worthy of a fantasy roster spot. Gregg is a tackling machine and can provide consistency to fantasy owners which is something hard to find with defensive lineman. Gregg is almost always good for 65-80 total tackles.

26. RDE Alex Brown (CHI) - Brown manages to fly under the radar every year. But, you will be hard pressed to find a more consistent defensive lineman. Brown has never had more than 7 sacks in a season, but he usually finishes in the 5-7 sack range with decent tackle numbers. These numbers may not seem very impressive but, in my scoring system, Brown scored the 21st most points for a defensive lineman. With the unfornate passing of Gaines Adams, Brown should remain the every-game starter at defensive end for the Bears.

27. RDE Cliff Avril (DET) - Avril was one of my top sleepers heading into the 2009 season and, man, did he make me look like a jackass. However, I'm still a believer in Avril and his value will definitely increase if the Lions take DT Suh or McCoy in the upcoming NFL draft. This is definitely one of those high risk/reward picks. S

28. LDE Osi Umenyiora (NYG) - It remains to be seen who will be the starting defensive left end for the 2010 season in New York. I have a suspicion that the underdog, Mathias Kiwanuka, will somehow grab the starting spot. However, Osi has come out and said that he will retire if he isn't the starter in 2010. This obviously may have some influence on the Giants decision. DSC

29. RDE Derrick Harvey (JAX) - Owners have been waiting for Harvey to breakout since he was drafted with the 8th overall pick in the 2008 NFL draft. This has failed to happen yet but Harvey did play well down the stretch last season and, if he can manage to put things together, he could be a top 20 lineman in the future. If you're feeling risky, this may be a good pick for you. S

30. RDE John Abraham (ATL) - This year was, perhaps, the worst season of Abraham's career. Abraham is getting older and is starting to be relegated to passing situations only. Many owners think Abraham is done and consequently his perceived value will be greatly diminished heading into 2010. However, many forget that it was only one year ago when Abraham had 16.5 sacks. I think Abraham may still be worth a late-round flier. R

31. LDE Shaun Ellis (NYJ) - Ellis had a nice year and seemed to thrive under new, defensive-minded, head coach Rex Ryan. I'm always a little bit skeptical of 3-4 DEs such as Ellis. However, Ellis has proven throughout his career that he is a top 30 defensive lineman.

32. LDE Adewale Ogunleye (CHI) - The unfortunate passing of Gaines Adams means that the Bears will likely retain "O-Gun" for the 2010 season. I like him for his consistency (8 straight years with 5 sacks or more), however, he doesn't have a ton of upside at this point in his career. FA

Tier 7

33. RDE Everette Brown (CAR) - Chances are good that Julius Peppers won't be a Carolina Panther next season. This is great news for Everette Brown as he would naturally slide into the starting RDE position. Brown is a very talented player and could be a great defensive end in the NFL. Keep in mind though that he is highly inexperienced and that it usually takes defensive ends a year or so to establish themselves. S

34. LDE William Hayes (TEN) - It looks as though the Titans will rid themselves of RDE Kyle Vanden Bosch this offseason making Hayes the #1 defensive lineman in Tennessee. Hayes showed flashes of brilliance last season and I like for him to improve upon his sack total of four from last year. S

35. RDE Darryl Tapp (SEA) - IDP owners have been waiting for Tapp to blossom into a top 15 defensive lineman for the last couple of years and it just hasn't happended. Tapp had an off-year last year by only registering 2.5 sacks. The defensive line situation in Seattle is a little unsettled right now with the possible retirement of Patrick Kerney. If Tapp can garner a starting defensive end spot, he is worth a late-round flier. Otherwise, I wouldn't put much stock into his value. FA, DSC

36. LDE Connor Barwin (HOU) - As my fellow FFManiaxs college Sean Haugh says, Barwin is "nasty." He has the intangibles and the intelligence to be a successful defensive end, he just needs to develop some moves. Playing opposite of All-Pro defensive end Mario Williams will definitely help Barwin develop more quickly. S

37. RDT Kevin Williams (MIN) - Williams' sack totals weren't off-base with his previous years accumulation. However, he had a career-low in tackles. I attribute these low tackle numbers to Williams being unhealthy for a large part of the 2nd half of the season. Tackle-wise, I think Williams will substantially improve next season and I foresee a similar sack total.

38. RDE Glen Dorsey (KC) - There is no doubting Dorsey's talent. However, he is severly miscast in Kansas City's 3-4 defensive scheme. He's managed only 2 sacks in 2 years. For as bad as Dorsey's been though, he still ranked as the 38th scoring lineman in my scoring system in large part due to his above average tackle numbers. With Romeo Crennel coming to town as KC's new defensive coordinator, I expect Dorsey to generate more than 1 sack next year and to produce a good amount of tackles. Dorsey could be a nice late-round steal. S

39. LDT Jonathan Babineaux (ATL) - Both Jonathan Babineaux and Kroy Biermann emerged this season for the Falcons. It's difficult to tell which player (if any) is the real deal and which one is the fluke. Even though he is a defensive tackle, I would bet on Babineaux being the better play in 2010. He was a standout at Iowa and was fairly highly touted in the draft. He was fairly consistent throughout the 2009 season and registered a nice sack total of six from his interior position and finished with the 19th most points for a defensive lineman in my scoring system. I don't think he'll have quite as good of a year next season, but he's still should be a solid low DL3/high DL4.

40. RDE Kyle Vanden Bosch (TEN) - If you read my articles, you probably no that I don't have much love for KVB. Hence, the #39 ranking. I think he is highly overrated and doesn't deserve to be among the top 30 defensive lineman. Tennessee realizes that Vanden Bosch is going to struggle without Haynesworth and, as a result, they more than likely will not resign him. I figure some team will give Bosch a starting spot and if he can land on a team with a good interior defensive lineman, he could return to prominance. I doubt it though. FA, B

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Labels: 2010 IDP Draft Rankings

Saturday, January 16, 2010

2010 IDP Draft Rankings - Defensive Lineman

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