2010 IDP Draft Rankings - Linebackers
I know it's super early for 2010 IDP rankings. However, I always like to start them early and get a foundation built. I will continually update these rankings throughout the offseason to reflect changes in free agency, defensive schemes, defensive playing time, rookie draft selections, etc.
I would also love to get feedback from my readers. Often times, we get stuck in our own philosophies and tendencies. So, it's nice to get a different perspective on things. Your comments will definitely influence my rankings.
Drafting Philosophy:
Linebackers are undoubtedly the staples of a fantasy defense. However, I believe many owners often times misjudge value at this position. If you aren't able to grab a "Tier 1" or "Tier 2" linebacker, then I would wait on drafting a linebacker until the later rounds. In my scoring system, the difference between the 2nd leading point scorer for linebackers, Jon Beason, and the next highest scoring linebacker, James Laurinaitis, was 51 points. Conversely, only 51 points separated Laurinaitis from the 25th ranked linebacker Dhani Jones. This stat shows that after the 1st two tiers of linebackers, the fantasy production is very similar. Hence, why my "Tier 3" is so large.
In addition, IDP studs always emerge at the linebacker position during the early part of the season (e.g. David Hawthorne, Brian Cushing, Clint Session, Stephen Tulloch, etc.).With this being said, I sometimes like to have a player at linebacker who I feel is expendable in order to pick up a potential linebacker stud off of the waiver wire during the season.
This clip just shows you that even the most calm and collected QB in the NFL loses his cool once in a while: Peyton Manning Goes Off on Saturdays Too
I would also love to get feedback from my readers. Often times, we get stuck in our own philosophies and tendencies. So, it's nice to get a different perspective on things. Your comments will definitely influence my rankings.
Drafting Philosophy:
Linebackers are undoubtedly the staples of a fantasy defense. However, I believe many owners often times misjudge value at this position. If you aren't able to grab a "Tier 1" or "Tier 2" linebacker, then I would wait on drafting a linebacker until the later rounds. In my scoring system, the difference between the 2nd leading point scorer for linebackers, Jon Beason, and the next highest scoring linebacker, James Laurinaitis, was 51 points. Conversely, only 51 points separated Laurinaitis from the 25th ranked linebacker Dhani Jones. This stat shows that after the 1st two tiers of linebackers, the fantasy production is very similar. Hence, why my "Tier 3" is so large.
In addition, IDP studs always emerge at the linebacker position during the early part of the season (e.g. David Hawthorne, Brian Cushing, Clint Session, Stephen Tulloch, etc.).With this being said, I sometimes like to have a player at linebacker who I feel is expendable in order to pick up a potential linebacker stud off of the waiver wire during the season.
This clip just shows you that even the most calm and collected QB in the NFL loses his cool once in a while: Peyton Manning Goes Off on Saturdays Too
| Scoring System: Solo Tackle = 2 points Assist = 1 point Sack = 7 points Interception = 12 points Fumble Recovery = 5 points |
| Key: FA = 2010 Free Agent DSC = Possible Defensive Scheme Change S = Sleeper/Undervalued Player B = Bust/Overvalued Player R = Injury Risk |
Tier 1
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1. RILB Patrick Willis (SF) - Willis is the obvious number one linebacker heading into the 2010 season. In his first three seasons in the league, he has averaged 120 solo tackles, 36 assists, and 3 sacks. You won't find a more consistent and reliable linebacker then Pat. |
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2. MLB Jon Beason (CAR) – For some reason, some IDP owners have lost a little faith in Beason. I haven't at all. He played most of the season injured and he still registered career highs in total tackles, sacks, and INTs with 142 total tackles, 3 sacks, and 3 INTs. He's the best fantasy linebacker not named "Patrick Willis." |
Tier 2
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3. MLB Paul Posluszny (BUF) – Admittedly, I have a bit of a man-crush on "Pos." Who could resist those long blond locks? Joking aside, Posluszny was a beast this season. In my scoring system, he averaged 20 points per game which made him the fifth highest scoring linebacker by average. He only played 12 games this season due to an injury in Week 1. If you extrapolate his numbers out to a full season, he would have had 116 solo tackles, 30 assists, and 4 INTs. He has all the intangibles to make for a great fantasy linebacker; he plays on a bad defense, he doesn't have a ton of competition in the front seven for tackles, and he has a non-stop motor. If he can stay healthy, I foresee Paul being a top five linebacker next year. DSC, S, R Feb. 10 Update: The Bills switch to a 3-4 system should actually improve Posluszny's value especially if they use a two-gap system. By using this type of system, Posluszny will have to fend off list lineman and will have an easier route to the ball carrier. |
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4. MLB James Laurinaitis (STL) – I was really big on Laurinaitis coming into the 2009 season. He plays in a position in St. Louis that has proven to be very fruitful for fantasy owners over the last several seasons. Will Witherspoon, a mediocre fantasy player in my opinion, put up solid fantasy numbers there for years. Laurinaitis is much more talented than Witherspoon and it showed this season. With a full year under his belt in the NFL, Laurinaitis should be able to improve upon his top 6 2009 numbers. |
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5. RILB D’Qwell Jackson (CLE) – As far as pure tackling production is concerned, Jackson is about as good as they get. Not only does he compile a massive amount of solo tackles, he compiles a ton of assists as well. If he hadn’t gotten hurt early in the season this year, he could have finished as the #1 or #2 overall LB in a tackle-heavy league. Jackson is a free agent this year, but the Browns will more than likely resign him. If they do, don’t hesitate to grab him somewhat early in your 2010 fantasy draft, especially if you're in a tackle-heavy league. FA |
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6. MLB Barrett Ruud (TB) – I personally think Ruud is a tad overrated. However, over the last three years, he has proven to be one of the most consistent fantasy linebackers in the league by averaging 131 total tackles per year. When drafting linebackers early, I look for reliability and consistency and this is what Ruud brings. FA |
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7. MLB Curtis Lofton (ATL) - I don't have Lofton ranked as high as others do because he showed some signs of wearing down over the last four games of the season. Lofton started the season out hot and was a top five linebacker. However, he finished as the 16th best linebacker in my scoring system. I like that he is a 4-3 MLB because they tend to produce the most consistent fantasy results and Lofton is still young and last year was his first year as the leader of the defense. With this being said, he should be able to improve upon his 2009 totals and be a top 8 linebacker next season. B |
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8. RILB David Harris (NYJ) – Many fantasy owners were slightly disappointed in Harris’ production this year and I can’t figure out why. He had 131 total tackles and 5.5 sacks (both career highs). His production did slightly fall off towards the end of the season, but he was playing through an injury. He still finished as a top eight linebacker in my scoring system and should thrive under the tutorledge of defensive mastermind Rex Ryan. |
Tier 3
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9. MLB Kirk Morrison (OAK) – Morrison is perhaps the most underrated fantasy linebacker in the NFL. He’s finished with more than 90 solo tackles in each of the five years he’s been in the league. However, he is a free agent this year and the majority of his value resides in the fact that he plays on the Raiders defense, which has made relative unknown middle linebackers, like Greg Biekert, into fantasy studs. If he resigns with the Raiders, he will remain a top 10 linebacker. But if he signs with another team, his fantasy value will take a serious hit. FA, S |
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10. MLB Justin Durant (JAX) – I was big on Durant all year and, if not for injuries, he would have more than likely finished as a top 15 linebacker. He was only under five solos in three of his 13 games while averaging 6.2 solos per game.I don’t think the Jaguars will be much better next season then they were this season and consequently their defense will be on the field quite a bit. In addition, coach Jack Del Rio has said that there are moving solely back to an aggressive 4-3 defensive scheme. This is the same scheme in which MLB Mike Peterson thrived in 2004 and 2005. Look for Durant to have a very solid 2010 season. DSC, S |
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11. SLB Brian Cushing (HOU) – I was a bit skeptical of Cushing early in the season because of the historical lack of fantasy production from strong side linebackers. However, Cushing ended up having a fantastic year and his fantasy production actually improved as the year progressed. I still remain a little leery of Cushing because his fantasy numbers were inflated due to a number of big plays and his tackling production was a bit shaky; he had five games with three solos or fewer and nine games with five solos or fewer. Cushing may be slightly overvalued in 2010 but still remains a top 12 linebacker. B |
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12. RILB D.J. Williams (DEN) – Many IDP websites project Williams as a low LB1/high LB2 and I agree with this projection. Williams finished as the 10th best linebacker in my scoring system and he was a very consistent point scorer throughout the year. However, Williams doesn't produce a ton of big plays. Essentially, he is slightly more productive version of Patriots linebacker Jerod Mayo. |
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13. MLB London Fletcher-Baker (WAS) – Say what you want about LFB; I love the guy. For eight seasons in a row, he’s finished with over 90 solo tackles and 25 assists. You don't get any more consistent than that. The fact that he will be 35 next season doesn’t bother me much at all. Hell, he was 34 last year and he had 142 total tackles. How much difference could one year make? The only thing I would be concerned about is the Redskins possible change to a 3-4 defensive scheme. This would hinder LFB's tackling production since he doesn't have the size required for an inside 3-4 linebacker to be able to take on opposing offensive lineman. DSC |
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14. LILB Ray Lewis (BAL) – Along the same lines at LFB, I really don’t care that Lewis will be 35 entering into the 2010 season. Did you see this guy in the playoffs this year? He looks like he’s 25. I’ve owned Lewis numerous times in my ten years as an owner in IDP leagues and he’s never let me down. Lewis may fall in next year's draft because of his age. If he does, he could be a great middle-round value. |
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15. MLB DeMeco Ryans (HOU) – I think Ryans will give owners a lot of value in 2010. He was a bit inconsistent this season and consequently some owners have lost faith in him. However, the fact remains, he actually improved upon his 2008 fantasy production by putting up 93 solo tackles and 30 assists. Ryans could be a nice middle-to-late round steal. FA, S |
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16. RILB Jerod Mayo (NE) – Mayo is one of the most consistent fantasy producers in the league and although he doesn’t have a very high point ceiling, he doesn’t have a very low floor either. There isn't much competition in New England's front seven for tackles, so Mayo's production should remain relatively constant. He's a fairly safe bet for 95-100 solo tackles. If you’re looking for a pick with little risk, Mayo is a great option. |
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17. RILB Karlos Dansby (ARI) – Dansby was, week in and week out, an extremely consistent point scorer in 2009. He didn’t have many huge games, but he didn’t have any games that killed his owners either. Dansby is a free agent heading into the 2010 season and rumors are that he may sign with another team. I really don't think this will hurt Dansby's value much. He has played in many different defensive schemes throughout his career and, therefore, he should have a short learning curve on a new team. FA |
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18. WLB Lance Briggs (CHI) – Briggs has been outperforming Brian “Big Name” Urlacher for years, as far as fantasy production is concerned. Over the last six years, Briggs has averaged 94 solo tackles and 22 assists. With Urlacher injured and another year slower, Briggs should remain the solid IDP producer he has been for the last several years. |
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19. MLB Jonathan Vilma (NO) – VILMA!!!!!!!!!!!!!! I thought Vilma had a pretty good year considering the New Orleans defense wasn’t on the field a ton this year and, when they were, teams were usually passing to play catch-up. Vilma doesn’t have much competition for tackles in New Orleans and will therefore remain a solid linebacker next year. |
Tier 4
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20. WLB Thomas Davis (CAR) – Davis was on his way to a monster season in 2009 before he suffered a season ending injury in week 9 against the Saints. Some people are worried about Davis’ early hot streak being a fluke. I’m not. He produced 92 solo tackles from his WLB position in Carolina in the 2008 season and with Carolina using more Cover 2 defensive schemes, his numbers were naturally going to rise. Davis' value is highly dependent on if he resigns with Carolina. If he does, he remains a top 20 linebacker. FA, S, R |
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21. MLB Stewart Bradley (PHI) – Coming into the 2009 season, I was very high on Bradley. In 2008, he showed flashes of brilliant defensive play and with SS Brian Dawkins signing with the Broncos last season, Bradley is in line to become the leader of the defense. I look for him to come back from his injury and put up solid LB2-LB3 numbers. S, R |
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22. MLB Stephen Tulloch (TEN) – Tulloch had a fantastic year and if these rankings were based purely on last year’s production, he would be a top 15-20 linebacker. However, Tulloch is a free agent and it remains to be seen where he will end up even though I feel he will resign with the Titans. Last year, Tulloch wasn’t an every-down linebacker (he came out in the nickel package) and if he goes to a team with less tackle opportunities, his numbers may take a substantial hit. FA |
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23. WLB Clint Session (IND) - Session could prove to be a great value pick next year. Before he went down with an injury in Week 15, he was a top 10 linebacker. Even though I don't think he will return to top 10 status next year, I still think Session is a top 25 linebacker. Indy plays a lot of Cover 2 which bodes well for Session at his WLB position. In addition, that position has proven to be a lucrative one for fantasy players in Indy (e.g. David Thornton, Mike Peterson). S |
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24. MLB DeAndre Levy (DET) – Lions defensive coordinator has announced that he wants Levy to be the starting MLB for the 2010 season. This is great news for Levy owners. DeAndre has been on the watchlists of many IDP owners since he was drafted with the 2nd pick in the 3rd round of last year's draft. He has the skills to be a solid NFL middle linebacker and will get plenty of tackle opportunities in Detriot. It may take him a few games to get used to playing the position. However, I still expect 85-95 solos out of him next season. S |
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25. LOLB LaMarr Woodley (PIT) – I tend to shy away from players who rely heavily on big plays (e.g. sacks). However, Woodley was an absolute stud the last eight weeks of the season. During this span, he registered 11.5 sacks. Admittingly, this is a high risk/reward pick. Next year, Woodley could end up with numbers similar to James Harrison’s 2008 campaign or Harrison could rebound and take away from Woodley’s numbers. |
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26. WLB Michael Boley (NYG) - If you look at Boley's 2009 stat line (66 solo tackles, 19 assists, and 2 sacks), you may be disappointed. However, Boley missed 5 games due to injury. If you extrapolate these numbers over 16 games, he would have finished with 96 solo tackles, 27 assists, and 3 sacks. These are D.J. Williams type numbers. In addition, the Giants just signed defensive coordinator Perry Fewell who tends to use the Tampa-2 scheme frequently. This should further increase Boley's value next season. DSC, S |
Tier 5
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27. RILB Nick Barnett (GB) – Barnett rebounded nicely from his season-ending knee injury in 2008. Over his seven years in the league, Barnett has proven to be one of the more consistent tackling linebackers in the league by averaging 86 solo tackles and 34 assists. Look for him to continue to perform well in Dom Capers' 3-4 defensive system. |
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28. SLB Chad Greenway (MIN) – Greenway, along with Brian Cushing, are oddities in the IDP world because of their solid production out of the SLB position. Greenway finished as the 23rd ranked linebacker in my scoring system by registering 99 total tackles, 3 fumble recoveries, and 3 interceptions. With E.J. Henderson slowed down somewhat because of injury, Greenway may have a slight uptake in production next year. |
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29. WLB Geno Hayes (TB) – This is one of my top sleeper picks for next year. Hayes came on like a banshee during the last few games of the 2009 campaign. He was the #6 overall linebacker in my scoring system over the last eight weeks of the season and the WLB in Tampa Bay has proven to be lucrative (i.e. Derrick Brooks). Keep your eye on this kid! S |
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30. MLB Gary Brackett (IND) – Brackett has been one of fantasy football’s best kept secrets the last few years and although he doesn't have much big play upside, when healthy, Brackett is capable of putting of solid low LB2/high LB3 numbers in a tackle-heavy league. The emergence of Clint Session doesn't bother me much because there are enough tackles to go around for two solid tackling linebackers on the Colts defense. FA, S |
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31. MLB Lofa Tatupu (SEA) –With the sudden emergence of David Hawthorne and the drafting of Aaron Curry, many people are starting to forget about Lofa Tatupu, which could be a mistake. The Seahawks gave Tatupu a six-year, $42 million contract extension and he will remain the leader and focal point of the defense. He managed over 100 total tackles in three of his first four seasons in the league. He was injured for pretty much the whole 2009 season but should return completely healthy in 2010. The Seahawks are contemplating moving to a 3-4 defense to get David Hawthorne on the field more. Even if they use more 3-4 packages, Tatupu will still be an every-down linebacker. Consequently, at this point in time, I can't justify having a one-year performer like Hawthorne ranked higher than a proven reliable fantasy linebacker like Lofa. DSC, R |
Tier 6
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32. ROLB James Harrison (PIT) – The one stat that concerns me about Harrison is that he only registered two sacks in the final nine games of the season. On the other hand, he did have eight sacks in his first seven games. Even though I believe the LaMarr Woodley has now become THE sack guy in Pittsburgh, I also believe that there are enough sacks to feed Harrison as well. In addition, Harrison tends to generate a decent amount of tackles for a big-play linebacker (he's averaged 93 total tackles over the last three seasons) and even though he had an off-year, he still finished in the top 30 linebackers in my scoring system. B |
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33. MLB Brian Urlacher (CHI) – Urlacher remains one of the most overrated fantasy linebackers in the game. He started showing signs of wearing down in 2008 when he failed to register over 100 tackles and then he missed pretty much the entire 2009 season with a wrist injury. He is expected to be fully healthy by the time offseason workouts begin though. On the positive side, Urlacher is the leader of the Bears defense and has a non-stop motor when it comes to tracking down the ball carrier. I think Briggs is the best fantasy linebacker option in Chicago, but Urlacher can still provide some good value, just not top 20 value anymore. B, R |
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34. MLB Derrick Johnson (KC) – For some reason the Chiefs thought it would be a good idea to relegate Johnson to playing only in nickel situations and start mediocre linebacker Demorrio Williams. Johnson is a very talented player and deserves to be an every-down player. He is a restricted free this year and many NFL teams and scouts have him ranked very highly on their free agent boards. If Johnson stays in KC and they give him a starting ILB spot, he could very well be a top 20 linebacker. Hell, if Demorrio can put 117 total tackles, just think what Johnson could do. Even if he goes to another team, Johnson could provide good value. It all depends on his playing time. FA, S |
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35. MLB David Hawthorne (SEA) – Hawthorne was a top five linebacker last season and he didn't start five games. However, the Seahawks gave Lofa Tatupu a ton of money and he will be back starting at the MLB in 2010. In remains to be seen what type of defensive scheme the Seahawks will employ in 2010 and what role Hawthorne will play in that scheme. If he can wrestle away a starting WLB position in a 4-3 or an inside linebacker position in a 3-4, he could prove to be valuable. FA, DSC, B |
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36. RILB Stephen Cooper (SD) –I've always been a fan of Stephen Cooper. For the last couple seasons he has been grossly undervalued. He started off the 2009 season with a bang by averaging 9.5 total tackles per game for the first 8 games. He quickly cooled off however in the 2nd half of the season as it appeared fellow linebackers Tim Dobbins and Brandon Siler began more heavily competing with Cooper for tackles. The Chargers have a very young and talented linebacking crew and I'm concerned that Cooper may have a difficult time establishing himself as the focal point of the defense in 2010. |
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37. MLB E.J. Henderson (MIN) –Henderson reminds me of a poor man's Karlos Dansby and is capable of putting up similar numbers when healthy. E.J. suffered a horrendous leg injury in week 13 against the Arizona Cardinals and won't be the starter when entering into training camp. I personally think Henderson will regain his starting position by the time the regular season rolls around, but he's a risky pick because you don't know how well his leg is going to hold up. R |
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38. WLB Ernie Sims (DET) –Many people have given up on Sims after an injury-riddled couple of years in the league. I'm not one of those people. When healthy, Sims is one of the more solid run-stopping linebackers in the league and put up good fantasy numbers in each of his first three seasons by averaging a whopping 124 total tackles per year. I have a suspicion that the Lions may try and trade Sims next year due to their surplus at linebacker. This would actually help improve Sims' fantasy value. Sims could be a sneaky play next season if he can correct his health issues. He still has nice upside. R |
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39. ROLB Elvis Dumervil (DEN) – Dumervil is a player that will be highly overvalued heading into the 2010 season. He was the sack leader was 17 sacks. However, he still only finished as the 31st total point scorer for linebackers in my scoring system, which actually has some big play slant to it. I don't expect Dumervil to have 17 sacks again next season and he doesn't produce enough tackles to warrant serious consideration as a top 35 linebacker. If you're in a league that rewards heavily for sacks then Dumervil may be a more serious consideration. FA, B |
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40. SLB Aaron Curry (SEA) –Curry is one of the better linebacking talents to come through the draft in recent years. However, he struggled to find a role within Seattle's defense and consequently was riding the pine for a large part of many games. The Seahawks have overhauled their coaching staff and I look for them to make every attempt to give Curry close to full-time playing status. If he can bring it all together, he could be a top 25 linebacker. That's a big if though. DSC |
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Labels: 2010 IDP Draft Rankings
posted by Ryan Sitzmann at
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