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Sunday, January 31, 2010

2010 IDP Sleepers (Undervalued Players)

I always hesitate to use the word sleeper because readers often associate that word with "no-name players." I prefer the word "undervalued." As a drafter, this is what I am always looking for: value. If I can get a 3rd round value in the 6th round, it gives me a significant relative advantage over my opponent. The following players (e.g. Justin Durant) most people have heard about and really aren't considered "sleepers." However, this doesn't mean Durant can't provide just as much relative value as a no-name player that emerges during the season.

In this article, I recommend players at each of the 3 defensive positions (DL, LB, DB) who I believe will be significantly undervalued heading into the 2010 fantasy season. This list will be continually updated throughout the offseason.

And for you listening pleasure, this audio clip pretty much sums of the feelings of Vikings fans around the globe: Minnesota Vikings Announcers



DEFENSIVE LINEMAN


Mathias Kiwanuka 1. LDE Mathias Kiwanuka (NYG) - It seems as though Osi Umenyiora has been permanently demoted to a 3rd-down pass rusher. Bad news for Osi owners, good news for Mathias owners. Kiwanuka has shown that he can be a serious IDP producer. In 2008, filling in for the injured Umenyiora, "Special K" compiled 8.5 sacks. He's also a steady tackler. As long as O.Y. doesn't re-enter the picture, Kiwanuka could provide good value in 2010 fantasy drafts.

Feb. 10 Update: Giants LDE Osi Umenyiora has announced that if he isn't the starting LDE for the 2010 that he will retire. This may force the Giants into starting Umenyiora over Kiwanuka. Obviously, if this happens, Kiwanuka's value falls somewhat.

Chris Long 2. RDE Chris Long (STL) - We have been waiting for Long to do something since he was drafted with the 2nd overall pick in 2008. He has the talent, he just needs another stud on the line to help alleviate some of the double teams he's receiving. He was utterly horrible in the 1st half of the 2008 season (zero sacks). However, the last 9 games of the season, he registered five sacks. If the Rams decide not to draft a QB with the 1st overall pick and go with DT Suh, Long's value substantially increases.

Cliff Avril 3. RDE Cliff Avril (DET) - Avril is in a similar situation to Chris Long. He was drafted in 2008 and many IDP owners thought he would be an impact player heading into the 2009 season. So far Avril hasn't done much. This fact could change come April when the Lions take a stud DT in the draft (either Suh or McCoy). Having a serious threat at defensive tackle will force opposing teams to double team the tackle thereby leaving Avril in one-on-one matchups with the left tackle. If he can pull his head out of his ass and beat DeWayne White out for the starting RDE job, he could be a nice late-round grab.

Everette Brown 4. RDE Everette Brown (CAR) - It's looking more and more like Julius Peppers will be leaving Carolina for another team this offseason. Brown is the most likely candidate to step into the vacant RDE spot. Brown has the talent to put up good numbers, it's just a matter of how long it will take him to learn this position.

William Hayes 5. LDE William Hayes (TEN) - With Kyle Vanden Bosch probably leaving this offseason, Hayes will be the main defensive lineman in Tennessee. Hayes showed last season that he was capable of putting together a solid season. If he can continue to progress, he will be a nice DL3.

Connor Barwin 6. LDE Connor Barwin (HOU) - The Texans took Barwin with the 47th overall pick in last year's NFL draft. He only had 3.5 sacks in 2009 but rarely do you see rookie defensive lineman put up good numbers in their first year and he did show flashes of brilliance in a couple games last season. Barwin has a lot going for him: he's fast (a former TE in college), he's intelligent, and he has a mean streak. He will also greatly benefit from playing opposite former 1st overall pick, Mario Williams. I think Barwin could surprise a lot of people next season.

Glen Dorsey 7. RDE Glen Dorsey (KC) - Dorsey has been a huge disappointment since being drafted in 2008 with the 5th overall pick. He's only managed two sacks in two years which is just pathetic. In his defense, he has been horribly misused in Kansas City. I look for new defensive coordinator Romeo Crennel to come in and fix a few things and put Dorsey in positions where he can become the playmaker he is capable of being.




LINEBACKERS

Justin Durant 1. MLB Justin Durant (JAX) - I fully expect Durant to be a top 10 linebacker in 2010. His overall 2009 numbers were a bit lower than I expected; however, he missed three games due to injury and, was playing with lingering concussion symptoms towards the latter part of the season. Also, the Jaguars began experimenting with multiple fronts last season and this held Durant out of some plays. Coach Jack Del Rio has recently said that for the 2010 season the Jaguars will move exclusively back to an aggressive 4-3 scheme. Durant, being the MIKE linebacker and the leader of the defense, benefits greatly from this transition. Mike Peterson had some very solid years in Jacksonville in that scheme. Heading into next season fully healthy, Durant should be a safe bet for 95+ solo tackles and 30+ assists. 

Michael Boley 2. WLB Michael Boley (NYG) - In 2007, Boley had career highs in total tackles, sacks, forced fumbles,  and INTs. Many IDPers were high on Boley after he signed on with the Giants in the offseason to play WLB. Many people figured that Boley, moving from SLB to WLB, would be able to produce solid LB2 numbers. If you look at Boley's 2009 stat line (66 solo tackles, 19 assists, and 2 sacks), you may be disappointed. However, Boley missed 5 games. If you extrapolate this numbers over 16 games, he would have finished with 96 solo tackles, 27 assists, and 3 sacks. These are D.J. Williams type numbers. In addition, the Giants just signed defensive coordinator Perry Fewell who tends to use the Tampa-2 scheme frequently. This should further increase Boley's value next season.

Geno Hayes 3. WLB Geno Hayes (TB) - This kid really started to turn it on the last few games of the season by registering 38 solo tackles, 3 sacks, and 2 INTs over his last 5 games. Tampa Bay isn't going to be much better next season, which means Hayes should be on the field a ton and will consequently see a lot of tackle opportunities. His big play production down the stretch is an added bonus as well.

DeAndre Levy 4. MLB DeAndre Levy (DET) - Levy will be the starting MLB for the Lions next season, essentially becoming the fantasy equilivant of Ernie Sims (circa 2006-2007). Levy isn't quite as talented as Sims though and will have more of a learning curve. I think Levy will really turn it on about 4 or 5 games into the season and be a solid LB2. It's just a matter if you want to sit and wait a few games for him to really develop.

Derrick Johnson 5. MLB Derrick Johnson (KC) – Johnson is one of the more talented linebackers in the league and he showed this when he had not one, but two pick sixes in the week 17 against the division rival Broncos. The Chiefs failed to use Johnson to the extent that he should be used (shocked!). However, he is a RFA this season and is gathering the interest of many NFL teams. If Johnson can land a starting job with the right team, he could be a nice option at linebacker next season.

Dannell Ellerbe 6. RILB Dannell Ellerbe (BALT) - Many Ravens homers believe that the team may have found a gem in this undrafted rookie linebacker. Ellerbe bypassed a banged-up Tavares Gooden to nail down the starting "Jack" linebacker job late in the season, excelling in the playoffs by putting up 10 solo tackles against the Colts in the divisional round. He'll enter the offseason as the favorite to start next to Ray Lewis inside.




DEFENSIVE BACKS

LaRon Landry 1. FS LaRon Landry (WASH) - Landry is one of the hardest-hitting safeties in the NFL but he, often times, struggles in coverage. In real life this can be frustrating for coaches and fans. However, in fantasy football, this is what IDP owners love. Landry has the talent and awareness to be around the ball a lot and, as he continues to learn and grow, he should be able to improve upon his tackle numbers. He started to come on during the last four or five games of the season and I think he will carry that performance into next year.

Kenny Phillips 2. SS Kenny Phillips (NYG) - Phillips entered the 2009 season on many IDP sleeper lists and was performing well until he went down with a season-ending knee injury in Week 2.  Backup safety, C.C. Brown, had some monster games in Phillips' absence (back-to-back double digit solo games in Week 6 and 7), granted much of that production was due to Brown having absolutely no cover skills. If Phillips can fully recover from his 2009 injury, he should have good value moving into the 2010 season.

Mike Mitchell 3. SS Mike Mitchell (OAK) - Tyvon Branch, a 4th round pick out of Connecticut, put up top 5 DB numbers out of the SS spot in Oakland. His production is a result of the system not of the player (sorry Tyvon). Gibril Wilson put up gaudy numbers in that same exact position in 2008. Once he signed with Miami, Wilson's numbers fall back to mediocrity. Neither one of these players are stand-alone IDP studs. However, the Oakland system and situation made them into studs. With this being said, Oakland spent a 2nd round draft pick to draft Mike Mitchell. If Mitchell can earn the starting SS in Oakland, he could exceed the numbers that Branch put up this year.


If you found this article to be helpful, check out my 2010 IDP Busts .



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