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Sunday, January 31, 2010

2010 IDP Rookies to Watch

When it comes to drafting rookies, IDP drafters are always looking to find the next Patrick Willis or James Lauriniatis. From my experience, with careful research, experience, and some luck, one can get pretty good at judging the performance of rookie IDPs.

The outstanding production of guys like Willis, Laurinaitis, or Jon Beason wasn't really a surprise to the owners who did their research and truly understood the dynamics of IDP fantasy football.

The rookie draft is one of the areas that an experienced IDP owner and can really separate themselves from other, less-savvy owners.

With this being said, I'm going to do the research for you. I will continually update this list as the off-season progresses depending on what happens in the 2010 NFL draft, injury news, etc.

And for your general amusement: Chad Johnson Performing "Dat Ain't My Baby."

1. ILB Rolando McClain (Alabama) - McClain was an absolute beast for Alabama and at 6'4" and 256 pounds, he would has the perfect size and intangibles to be a great inside linebacker in a 3-4 system. With this being said, I expect him to either go to the Broncos at pick 11 or the Dolphins at pick 12 (both teams that run a 3-4 defense). McClain is already drawing comparisons to the great Patrick Willis and future Hall of Famer Ray Lewis. If he lands in the right situation, we could have the next Patrick Willis on our hands. I wouldn't hesitate using an early round pick on McClain.

2. S Eric Berry (Tennessee) - If you talk to NFL scouts, they will tell you that Berry may, in fact, be the best player in the NFL draft behind Suh. Many are comparing him to Ed Reed and for good reason; while at Tennessee Berry amassed 494 interception return years (second most in NCAA history). Berry could provide the big-play fantasy potential of Ed Reed and is therefore worth a late-round flier in some deeper leagues.

3. S Taylor Mays (USC) - Mays' college success may not immediately transfer to the NFL due to his lack of superb coverage skills. He reminds a lot of former Cowboys SS Roy Williams. He has a great ability to lay down the big hit but he really struggles in coverage sometimes. This fact could make Mays a very viable fantasy option depending on where he lands in the draft. If he gets substantial playing time, he could be a good source of late-round tackles for IDP owners.

4. OLB Sean Weatherspoon (Missouri) - Witherspoon's lack of explosiveness may prevent him from being a 1st round pick. However, he's a solid tackler, he's good at diagnosing plays, and he had a great senior bowl showing. I've seen him compared to Curtis Lofton. Much of his value will depend on which teams selects him in the draft. If he can end up with a team that recognizes his value and is willing to play off his strengths, he could become a solid NFL linebacker.

5. CB Joe Haden (Florida) - Haden will be the 1st cornerback taken in the 2010 NFL draft and he will probably go within the first 10 picks. Haden projects as a shutdown cornerback in the NFL and is being compared to Leon Hall of the Bengals. He's a solid run tackler and, even though he's one of the better cornerbacks to come out of the draft recently, he's still a rookie and consequently teams will through at him which will lead to plenty of tackle opportunities. Tackle opportunities plus solid tackling skills equals good fantasy production. Haden could prove to be a valuable defensive back in 2010.

6. DT Gerald McCoy (Oklahoma) - In pretty much any other year, McCoy would be the #1 defensive lineman taken in the draft. I see McCoy going to Tampa Bay with the 3rd overall pick. This is a good fit for him. He is built to play tackle in a 4-3 system. I think McCoy has the potential to become a better fantasy player than Suh. Not because he's more talented but because the Bucs will utilize him in a more productive fantasy fashion than the Lions/Rams will use Suh. But, once again, McCoy is a defensive tackle, so temper your expectations.

7. DT Ndamukong Suh (Nebraska) - Suh could, perhaps, be the most talented defensive tackle to come out of college in the last 20 years. He reminds me of Albert Haynesworth. He has great agility and speed for a man of his size and is versatile enough to play many different positions on a NFL defensive line (a la Richard Seymour). However, I think some people may get caught up in the Suh hype and draft him way to early in fantasy drafts. The fact remains that he is primarily a defensive tackle and will be expected to command double and even triple teams. Therefore, I see his value being similar to that of Albert Haynesworth. With this being said, he's probably a Tier 5 defensive lineman.

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Labels: 2010 IDP Rookies to Watch

2010 IDP Sleepers (Undervalued Players)

I always hesitate to use the word sleeper because readers often associate that word with "no-name players." I prefer the word "undervalued." As a drafter, this is what I am always looking for: value. If I can get a 3rd round value in the 6th round, it gives me a significant relative advantage over my opponent. The following players (e.g. Justin Durant) most people have heard about and really aren't considered "sleepers." However, this doesn't mean Durant can't provide just as much relative value as a no-name player that emerges during the season.

In this article, I recommend players at each of the 3 defensive positions (DL, LB, DB) who I believe will be significantly undervalued heading into the 2010 fantasy season. This list will be continually updated throughout the offseason.

And for you listening pleasure, this audio clip pretty much sums of the feelings of Vikings fans around the globe: Minnesota Vikings Announcers

DEFENSIVE LINEMAN

1. LDE Mathias Kiwanuka (NYG) - It seems as though Osi Umenyiora has been permanently demoted to a 3rd-down pass rusher. Bad news for Osi owners, good news for Mathias owners. Kiwanuka has shown that he can be a serious IDP producer. In 2008, filling in for the injured Umenyiora, "Special K" compiled 8.5 sacks. He's also a steady tackler. As long as O.Y. doesn't re-enter the picture, Kiwanuka could provide good value in 2010 fantasy drafts.

Feb. 10 Update: Giants LDE Osi Umenyiora has announced that if he isn't the starting LDE for the 2010 that he will retire. This may force the Giants into starting Umenyiora over Kiwanuka. Obviously, if this happens, Kiwanuka's value falls somewhat.

2. RDE Chris Long (STL) - We have been waiting for Long to do something since he was drafted with the 2nd overall pick in 2008. He has the talent, he just needs another stud on the line to help alleviate some of the double teams he's receiving. He was utterly horrible in the 1st half of the 2008 season (zero sacks). However, the last 9 games of the season, he registered five sacks. If the Rams decide not to draft a QB with the 1st overall pick and go with DT Suh, Long's value substantially increases.

3. RDE Cliff Avril (DET) - Avril is in a similar situation to Chris Long. He was drafted in 2008 and many IDP owners thought he would be an impact player heading into the 2009 season. So far Avril hasn't done much. This fact could change come April when the Lions take a stud DT in the draft (either Suh or McCoy). Having a serious threat at defensive tackle will force opposing teams to double team the tackle thereby leaving Avril in one-on-one matchups with the left tackle. If he can pull his head out of his ass and beat DeWayne White out for the starting RDE job, he could be a nice late-round grab.

4. RDE Everette Brown (CAR) - It's looking more and more like Julius Peppers will be leaving Carolina for another team this offseason. Brown is the most likely candidate to step into the vacant RDE spot. Brown has the talent to put up good numbers, it's just a matter of how long it will take him to learn this position.

5. LDE William Hayes (TEN) - With Kyle Vanden Bosch probably leaving this offseason, Hayes will be the main defensive lineman in Tennessee. Hayes showed last season that he was capable of putting together a solid season. If he can continue to progress, he will be a nice DL3.

6. LDE Connor Barwin (HOU) - The Texans took Barwin with the 47th overall pick in last year's NFL draft. He only had 3.5 sacks in 2009 but rarely do you see rookie defensive lineman put up good numbers in their first year and he did show flashes of brilliance in a couple games last season. Barwin has a lot going for him: he's fast (a former TE in college), he's intelligent, and he has a mean streak. He will also greatly benefit from playing opposite former 1st overall pick, Mario Williams. I think Barwin could surprise a lot of people next season.

7. RDE Glen Dorsey (KC) - Dorsey has been a huge disappointment since being drafted in 2008 with the 5th overall pick. He's only managed two sacks in two years which is just pathetic. In his defense, he has been horribly misused in Kansas City. I look for new defensive coordinator Romeo Crennel to come in and fix a few things and put Dorsey in positions where he can become the playmaker he is capable of being.

LINEBACKERS

1. MLB Justin Durant (JAX) - I fully expect Durant to be a top 10 linebacker in 2010. His overall 2009 numbers were a bit lower than I expected; however, he missed three games due to injury and, was playing with lingering concussion symptoms towards the latter part of the season. Also, the Jaguars began experimenting with multiple fronts last season and this held Durant out of some plays. Coach Jack Del Rio has recently said that for the 2010 season the Jaguars will move exclusively back to an aggressive 4-3 scheme. Durant, being the MIKE linebacker and the leader of the defense, benefits greatly from this transition. Mike Peterson had some very solid years in Jacksonville in that scheme. Heading into next season fully healthy, Durant should be a safe bet for 95+ solo tackles and 30+ assists.

2. WLB Michael Boley (NYG) - In 2007, Boley had career highs in total tackles, sacks, forced fumbles, and INTs. Many IDPers were high on Boley after he signed on with the Giants in the offseason to play WLB. Many people figured that Boley, moving from SLB to WLB, would be able to produce solid LB2 numbers. If you look at Boley's 2009 stat line (66 solo tackles, 19 assists, and 2 sacks), you may be disappointed. However, Boley missed 5 games. If you extrapolate this numbers over 16 games, he would have finished with 96 solo tackles, 27 assists, and 3 sacks. These are D.J. Williams type numbers. In addition, the Giants just signed defensive coordinator Perry Fewell who tends to use the Tampa-2 scheme frequently. This should further increase Boley's value next season.

3. WLB Geno Hayes (TB) - This kid really started to turn it on the last few games of the season by registering 38 solo tackles, 3 sacks, and 2 INTs over his last 5 games. Tampa Bay isn't going to be much better next season, which means Hayes should be on the field a ton and will consequently see a lot of tackle opportunities. His big play production down the stretch is an added bonus as well.

4. MLB DeAndre Levy (DET) - Levy will be the starting MLB for the Lions next season, essentially becoming the fantasy equilivant of Ernie Sims (circa 2006-2007). Levy isn't quite as talented as Sims though and will have more of a learning curve. I think Levy will really turn it on about 4 or 5 games into the season and be a solid LB2. It's just a matter if you want to sit and wait a few games for him to really develop.

5. MLB Derrick Johnson (KC) – Johnson is one of the more talented linebackers in the league and he showed this when he had not one, but two pick sixes in the week 17 against the division rival Broncos. The Chiefs failed to use Johnson to the extent that he should be used (shocked!). However, he is a RFA this season and is gathering the interest of many NFL teams. If Johnson can land a starting job with the right team, he could be a nice option at linebacker next season.

6. RILB Dannell Ellerbe (BALT) - Many Ravens homers believe that the team may have found a gem in this undrafted rookie linebacker. Ellerbe bypassed a banged-up Tavares Gooden to nail down the starting "Jack" linebacker job late in the season, excelling in the playoffs by putting up 10 solo tackles against the Colts in the divisional round. He'll enter the offseason as the favorite to start next to Ray Lewis inside.

DEFENSIVE BACKS

1. FS LaRon Landry (WASH) - Landry is one of the hardest-hitting safeties in the NFL but he, often times, struggles in coverage. In real life this can be frustrating for coaches and fans. However, in fantasy football, this is what IDP owners love. Landry has the talent and awareness to be around the ball a lot and, as he continues to learn and grow, he should be able to improve upon his tackle numbers. He started to come on during the last four or five games of the season and I think he will carry that performance into next year.

2. SS Kenny Phillips (NYG) - Phillips entered the 2009 season on many IDP sleeper lists and was performing well until he went down with a season-ending knee injury in Week 2. Backup safety, C.C. Brown, had some monster games in Phillips' absence (back-to-back double digit solo games in Week 6 and 7), granted much of that production was due to Brown having absolutely no cover skills. If Phillips can fully recover from his 2009 injury, he should have good value moving into the 2010 season.

3. SS Mike Mitchell (OAK) - Tyvon Branch, a 4th round pick out of Connecticut, put up top 5 DB numbers out of the SS spot in Oakland. His production is a result of the system not of the player (sorry Tyvon). Gibril Wilson put up gaudy numbers in that same exact position in 2008. Once he signed with Miami, Wilson's numbers fall back to mediocrity. Neither one of these players are stand-alone IDP studs. However, the Oakland system and situation made them into studs. With this being said, Oakland spent a 2nd round draft pick to draft Mike Mitchell. If Mitchell can earn the starting SS in Oakland, he could exceed the numbers that Branch put up this year.

If you found this article to be helpful, check out my 2010 IDP Busts .

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Labels: 2010 IDP Sleepers

2010 IDP Busts (Overvalued Players)

I always hesitate to use the word "bust" because readers often associate that word with players who will have absolutely horrible seasons. I prefer to use the word "overvalued" instead. As a drafter, this is what I am always looking for: value. If a player is going two rounds higher than I projected him at, I'm not going to draft him, no matter if I think he's going to have a good season or not.

In this article, I recommend three players at each of the 3 defensive positions (DL, LB, DB) who I believe will be significantly overvalued heading into the 2010 fantasy season.

Here's an interesting article I stumbled upon this morning: Man Gets All Stabby After Wife Cancels ESPN

DEFENSIVE LINEMAN

1. RDE Dwight Freeney (IND) - There are 3 things that are inevitable in life: death, taxes, and Dwight Freeney being taken way too early in fantasy drafts. He is usually a safe bet for double-digit sacks but that's all he's going to get you. He had six solo tackles last year (excluding solo tackles obtained by way of a sack) and put up a goose egg in three games. He never had more than three solo tackles in any one game. He could have 20 sacks and still not be a top 8 defensive lineman because of this fact. So, when the guy next to you at the draft thinks he's a genius for drafting Dwight Freeney with one of his early defensive picks, feel free to ridicule him.

2. RDE Antwan Odom (CIN) - Odom had eight sacks in his first five games last season. But 5 of those came against the GB Packers. And, at that point in the season, my 78 year old grandma could have had a sack or two against their offensive line. I'm just not buying what Odom is selling. To me, it seemed like Odom's production was quite fluky and I'm not willing to spend anything but a late round draft pick on him.

3. RDE Kyle Vanden Bosch (TEN) - I never understood the fascination IDP owners have with "KVB." Yes, he did have a couple of double-digit sack seasons. But hell, I could have put up those numbers when I had the best defensive tackle in league, big daddy Haynesworth, sucking up 3 blockers. Just look at what Haynesworth's arrival has done for Andre Carter's production. Without Fat Albert, KVB only managed 3 sacks. And this loser is going to the pro bowl? C'mon people.

LINEBACKERS

1. SLB Brian Cushing (HOU) - Don't get me wrong, Cushing was a beast in 2009. However, the fact remains that he is a SLB and I can count on one hand the number of fantasy-worth strong-side linebackers. Cushing is athletic enough to overcome the SLB stigma and be a solid fantasy linebacker. I just don't think he's a top 8 linebacker like many IDP owners do. I see him being a top level tier-3 linebacker. But, I guarantee some over- zealous IDP owner will take Cushing ahead of established fantasy linebackers like Barrett Ruud and David Harris. O well!

2. MLB Brian Urlacher (CHI) – Urlacher remains one of the most overrated fantasy linebackers in the game. He started showing signs of wearing down in 2008 when he failed to register over 100 tackles and then he missed pretty much the entire 2009 season with a wrist injury. Lance Briggs is the best fantasy linebacker in Chicago. Don't be fooled by Urlacher's "big name" and draft him too early.

3. ROLB James Harrison (PIT) - During the last eight games of the 2009 season, it became apparent who the new IDP pass-rushing stud was in Pittsburgh and his name wasn't James Harrison. Over these last eight games, Harrison had just two sacks compared to teammate LaMarr Woodley's 11.5. Woodley's younger and more talented than Harrison so this transfer of productivity was inevitable. Many owners in leagues that reward heavily for sacks may still be tempted to Harrison with an early pick, don't.

4. MLB David Hawthorne (SEA) - Hawthorne's emergence is one of my favorite 2009 IDP stories. He went from relative obscurity to carrying many IDP teams to their respective championships. However, I'm a realist. The Seahawks paid a lot of money to MLB Lofa Tatupu and he will be starting next year. With this being said, unless the Seahawks move to a 3-4 system and Hawthorne manages to obtain a starting inside linebacker position or he starts at WLB in their current 4-3 system, his value will diminish substantially and he will fall out of the top 20. And he also has to fend off Aaron Curry.

5. ROLB Elvis Dumervil (DEN) – Dumervil is a player that will be highly overvalued heading into the 2010 season. He was the sack leader was 17 sacks. However, he still only finished as the 31st total point scorer for linebackers in my scoring system, which actually has some big play slant to it. I don't expect Dumervil to have 17 sacks again next season and he doesn't produce enough tackles to warrant serious consideration as a top 35 linebacker.

DEFENSIVE BACKS

1. FS Louis Delmas (DET) - I'm not saying that Delmas is going to be a "bust" per se. However, I do think he will be drafted too high next year. If you take away his two defensive touchdowns and his safety, Delmas' numbers are fairly mediocre. He had just 64 solo tackles and only 2 INTs. I think Delmas' tackle and interception numbers will improve next year but at the expense of his defensive touchdowns. With this being said, Delmas is a top 15 player next year NOT a top 5.

2. SS Troy Polamalu (PIT) - Polamalu is overrated in the same way as SS Bob Sanders. He's a fantastic NFL player in real-life but when it comes to fantasy football, he's more of a tier 3 type of player. "Mr. Head and Shoulders" does have a knack for finding the ball, however, and has top 20 value if he can manage to stay healthy for a full season. With all this in mind, don't be fooled by the big name and reach for Polamalu too early though (i.e. Tier 1 or Tier 2).

3. FS Darren Sharper (NO) - Sharper will come into the 2010 season being highly overvalued. Many IDP "newbies" will just look at Sharper's overall fantasy points (2nd most in my scoring system) and therefore draft him unreasonably high. I say unreasonably high because Sharper's overall fantasy numbers were highly inflated due to 4 defensive touchdowns. I'm willing to bet my left nut that Sharper doesn't have 4 defensive touchdowns again next year. And, he's not a good enough tackling point producer to retain even top 15 value. I see Sharper being on the outskirts of the top 20 defensive backs and that's only because he been somewhat consistent in coming up with turnovers. Avoid in tackle-heavy leagues.

4. FS Danieal Manning (CHI) - First off, he spells their name this way? Anyways, Manning was a top 10 defensive back for the 1st half of the 2009 season. He quickly fell out of favor with the Bears coaching staff however after getting burned in coverage on multiple occasions. The Bears may decide to slide SS Kevin Payne or Al Afalava over to FS and reserve Manning for nickel situations. If this happens, Manning's value diminishes greatly.

5. LCB Darrelle Revis (NYJ) - In my opinion, Revis is the best shutdown cornerback in the NFL, which is usually bad from a fantasy standpoint because opposing QBs tend to throw away from him. Many inexperienced IDP owners will draft him because they equate his fantasic football skills to fantasic fantastic production. This is a mistake. Don't do it. B

6. SS Bob Sanders (IND) - Sanders reminds me a lot of Troy Polamalu. He is a great NFL player and solid fantasy defensive back when healthy. However, he is hardly ever healthy. Sanders is always the "if only" guy. If only he had played the whole season, if only he hadn't got hurt, etc. I've just accepted the fact that Sanders will probably never be fully healthy and you should probably do the same.

7. FS Kerry Rhodes (NYJ) - In my opinion, Rhodes is a highly overrated fantasy player. He really hasn't been a viable fantasy option since 2007 and he had the lowest tackle totals of his career last year. We keep waiting for him to bounce back and produce the type of fantasy numbers he did a couple of years ago, but I just don't think it's going to happen.

If you found this article to be helpful, check out my 2010 IDP Sleepers.

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Labels: 2010 IDP Busts

Saturday, January 16, 2010

2010 IDP Draft Rankings - Defensive Lineman

I know it's super early for 2010 IDP rankings. However, I always like to start them early and get a foundation built. I will continually update these rankings throughout the offseason to reflect changes in free agency, defensive schemes, defensive playing time, rookie draft selections, etc.

I would also love to get feedback from my readers. Often times, we get stuck in our own philosophies and tendencies. So it's nice to get a different perspective on things. Your comments will definitely influence my rankings.

Drafting Philosophy:
Defensive lineman are by far the most inconsistent fantasy point producers during the year. Many lineman will go three or four weeks without registering a sack and then, exactly when you drop them, they have a multiple sack game. This can be extremely frustrating for fantasy owners. In addition, there aren't many unknown lineman that emerge during the season and consequently the waiver wire is usually not packed with worthwhile fantasy defensive lineman.

With this being said, in order to lessen my "cognitive dissonance", I try to use many of my early round defensive draft picks on defensive lineman. Obtaining guys like Jared Allen and Justin Tuck allows me to plug them in my roster and not worry about their ups and downs throughout the season, since they have proven their consistency throughout their careers.

Also, when you're trying to fill that last defensive lineman position, I prefer to go with younger, high risk/high reward players such as Everette Brown or Connor Barwin as opposed to the safer, veteran players such as Richard Seymour or Albert Haynesworth. This philosophy is reflected in my lower-tier rankings.

Since were on the topic of defensive lineman, here is a funny audio clip: Sex Education with Al Michaels and Jared Allen.

Scoring System:
Solo Tackle = 2 points
Assist = 1 point
Sack = 7 points
Interception = 12 points
Fumble Recovery = 5 points

Key:
FA = 2010 Free Agent
DSC = Possible Defensive Scheme Change
S = Sleeper/Undervalued Player
B = Bust/Overvalued Player
R = Injury Risk

Tier 1

1. RDE Jared Allen (MIN) - This is an obvious one. Allen was the top fantasy lineman by a substantial margin in 2009. Not only does he get to the quarterback on a consistent basis, he seems to come up with a handful of big plays every year. Allen provides the largest relative fantasy value of any defensive lineman and should therefore be one of the first defensive players selected.

Tier 2

2. RDE Justin Tuck (NYG) - Tuck had his worst season in three seasons and he still finished as the eighth leading scorer for defensive lineman in my scoring system. Keep in mind that Tuck was struggling with injury problems the whole season and that the Giants defensive line severly underperformed, both of which greatly limited his production. Heading into the 2010 season, with a clean bill of health and an improved defensive line, Tuck should be able to return to top form. DSC, R

3. RDE Trent Cole (PHI) - Cole has been a model of consistency over the last four seasons. During that span, he has averaged over 10 sacks per season and over 60 total tackles. Defensive lineman are the most inconsistent fantasy producers. With this being said, Cole becomes a valuable commodity in the IDP world.

4. RDE Julius Peppers (CAR) - Peppers answered all the doubters this season by registering 10.5 sacks to follow up his 14.5 sack season of a year ago. This marks the fifth time in eight seasons that Peppers has registered double digit sacks. He is a free agent heading into the 2010 season and has about "40 percent chance to stay in Carolina." However, it shouldn't matter much where Peppers ends up. FA

5. RDE Mario Williams (HOU) - Williams had somewhat of an off-year in 2009 by compiling only nine sacks. However, over his last three seasons in the league, he has averaged 12 sacks per year. The possible emergence of Connor Barwin at LDE could take some pressure off of Williams and allow him to return to his double digit sack production of 2007 and 2008.

Tier 3

6. RDE/ROLB Terrell Suggs (BALT) - Suggs in one of the safest choices at defensive lineman. He is usually a lock for 65-80 total tackles and eight or more sacks. His 2009 sack numbers (5.5 sacks) seem a bit disappointing. However, keep in mind that Suggs missed three games due to injury which lowered his overall numbers. A healthy Suggs should be able to produce his typical fantasy numbers in 2010. S, R

7. LDE Robert Mathis (IND) - Mathis' 2009 numbers are bit deceiving. Yes, he did have 9.5 sacks. However, all 9.5 of those sacks were registered during the first 12 games of the season. Mathis only registered one tackle and no sacks during the last five games of the season due to injury issues. If he had played a full injury-free season, he probably would have had 13-15 sacks. As long as Freeney continues to draw the attention of defenses, Mathis will be a top 10 fantasy DL.

8. RDE Will Smith (NO) - Smith was sure "getting jiggy wit' it" in 2009 by sacking the quarterback 13.5 times. Personally, I think the "Fresh Prince" played a little over his head in 2009 and may be somewhat overvalued heading into the 2010 draft. However, he does have the advantage of playing on the Saints defense where he has plenty of sack opportunities since opposing teams are usually trailing the Saints and have to throw to catch up. B

9. RDE Andre Carter (WAS) - Carter obviously benefited from the addition of big daddy Haynesworth in the middle of Washington's defensive line. Teams focusing a lot of attention on Albert freed up Carter for a career year in which he managed to sack the quarterback 11 times. Carter is getting a little long in the tooth; however he still has at least one more good year left in him. DSC

Tier 4

10. RDE Dwight Freeney (IND) - In my opinion, Freeney is overrated and always has been. As a like to say, there are three things in life that are inevitable: death, taxes, and someone taking Dwight Freeney too early in a fantasy draft. Yes, he has averaged 12 sacks over the last two seasons. However, he just doesn't generate enough tackles to warrant top 8 consideration. Excluding solo tackles obtained from sacking the quarterback, Freeney had only six solo tackles. In my scoring system, that puts him as the 20th ranked defensive lineman. Keep in mind though, if you're in a league that rewards heavily for sacks, Freeney may be of extra value to you. B

11. LDE Ray Edwards (MIN) - Edwards really exploded onto the IDP this season with 9 sacks. Obviously, Edwards benefited greatly from having the beast known as Jared Allen drawing double teams on the opposite side of the defensive line. Allen continuing to draw the attention of opposing offenses should free Edwards up to produce similar stats to his 2009 season. He may,however, see a slight decrease in numbers now that opposing offenses know about him. FA, S

12. RDE Darnell Dockett (ARI) - Dockett's numbers have never been overly impressive. However, he did finish as the number 10 lineman in my scoring system by having both solid tackle (54 total tackles) and sack (7.5 sacks) numbers. Dockett should be able to replicate his 2009 numbers next year.

13. RDE Aaron Schobel (BUF) - There has been some speculation that Schobel is going to retire in the offseason. Obviously, if he does retire, his value drops to nothing. However, if he chooses to come back to Buffalo for another year, he should be able compile 8-11 sacks. Schobel has had 8 or more sacks in six of his last eight seasons and is therefore one of the safer draft selections at the defensive lineman position. DSC

Feb. 10 Update: The Bills have announced their transfer to a 3-4 defense next season. This hurts the value of Schobel moving forward. He was already an iffy selection because of his age and possible retirement, but his chances for another top 10 season are further diminished by playing in a 3-4 defensive scheme. He will be facing more double-teams and will have a more difficult route to the quarterback. Consequently, his ranking has fallen from #10 to #13.

14. LDE Patrick Kerney (SEA) - Kerney really struggled this season and ended up disappointing many fantasy owners by only coming up with six sacks. In his defense, he was battling an elbow injury for most of the season. During the offseason, Kerney will be having surgery to correct his elbow problems and, consequently, he should be able to rebound next year (if he doesn't decide to retire). DSC, R

15. RDE Justin Smith (SF) - Words cannot describe how atrocious Smith was this season. Through 15 games of the season, he only had 2.5 sacks. He finished the year with six sacks because he registered 3.5 sacks against the lowly Rams in the final game of the season. With this being said, Smith still finished as the 12th highest scoring lineman. The fact remains that Smith is one of the better tackling lineman and is therefore a fairly safe pick to be a top 20 defensive lineman.

16. LDE Mathias Kiwanuka (NYG) - I really like Kiwanuka heading into the 2010 season. At this point in time, he looks to have a slight hold on the starting LDE position in New York. "Special K" has shown that he can produce when given the opportunity (8 sacks in 2008 as a full-time starter) and he will surely benefit from playing opposite RDE Justin Tuck. Look for Kiwanuka to be a solid DL2 next season. DSC, S

Feb. 10 Update: Giants LDE Osi Umenyiora has announced that if he isn't the starting LDE for the 2010 that he will retire. This may force the Giants into starting Umenyiora over Kiwanuka. Obviously, if this happens, Kiwanuka's value falls somewhat. I've adjusted Kiwanuka's ranking from #14 to #16 to reflect this news.

Tier 5

17. RDE/WLB Trevor Scott (OAK) - The Raiders used Scott in a hybrid DE/OLB role towards the end of the 2009 season, similar to what Baltimore does with Terrell Suggs, and he produced some nice numbers. If the Raiders choose to keep using Scott in this fashion next year, he should be a solid DL2. S

18. RDE Chris Long (STL) - I was high on Long coming into the 2009 season and he really disappointed. He failed to register a sack until Week 8; however he had five sacks the rest of the season. I think Long is going to breakout next year and show people why he was the 2nd overall pick back in 2008, especially if the Rams draft DT Suh with the first overall pick in the upcoming draft. S

19. RDE Greg "Stylez" White (TB) - The "(Sack) Artist Formerly Known as Greg" come through with a solid season. All of White's 6.5 sacks came after the Buccaneers traded RDE Gaines Adams in Week 5. With Adams gone, White should be able to further improve upon his 2009 numbers. In addition, the Bucs will probably use their #3 overall draft pick on a defensive tackle which will do nothing but help White's numbers. S

20. RDE Randy Starks (MIA) - Starks came out of the woodwork this season and strung together a solid year of production with 42 solo tackles and 7 sacks. Starks surprisingly finished as the ninth best lineman in my scoring system. However, I'm still a little skeptical about Starks due to the fact that he is a defensive end in a 3-4 system and is therefore more likely to wear down during the course of an entire season.

21. LDE Calais Campbell (ARI) - Campbell took advantage of teams focusing on Pro-Bowl RDE Darnell Dockett by getting to the quarterback 6.5 times. Campbell is only going into his 3rd season and is a talented player who should only improve with time. I expect similar numbers in 2010.

Tier 6

22. RDE Antwan Odom (CIN) - Odom had 8 sacks in his first five games of the season before going down with a season-ending knee injury. I think Odom is going to be severely overvalued heading into the 2010 fantasy draft. The Bengals' defensive line hasn't been a very fruitful place for fantasy players lately and, keep in mind that, 5 of Odom's 8 sacks came against Aaron Rodgers and his offensive line (at the time approximately named "Baby Swiss"). B, R

23. LDE Chris Kelsay (BUF) - Much of Kelsay's production depends on if RDE Aaron Schobel retires or not. Kelsay isn't good enough to work through double teams, which is exactly what he will be forced to do if Schobel retires and the Bills don't find an adequate replacement. If Schobel stays, Kelsay should be able to remain a top 20 defensive lineman. DSC

Feb. 10 Update: The Bills have announced their transfer to a 3-4 defense next season. This move hurts the value of pretty much all of the starting Bills defensive lineman including Kelsay. Much of Kelsay's production was due to him getting one-on-one matchups. His role in a 3-4 system will be to occupy and hold the offensive lineman so that the linebackers can get to their respective gaps. He won't be able to explode into a specific gap like he did a 4-3 system. Kelsay isn't a good enough player to put up great numbers in a system such as this. Thus, his ranking falls from #18 to #23.

24. NT Jay Ratliff (DAL) - Ratliff is one of the few nose tackles in the league who is actually a viable fantasy option. Ratliff has finished in the top 25 for defensive lineman in each of the past two years. With this being said, he has pretty much maxed out his upside. However, is a pretty safe bet to finish in the top 30 for defensive lineman.

25. NT Kelly Gregg (BALT) - Kelly Gregg, similar to Jay Ratliff, is one of the few interior lineman that are worthy of a fantasy roster spot. Gregg is a tackling machine and can provide consistency to fantasy owners which is something hard to find with defensive lineman. Gregg is almost always good for 65-80 total tackles.

26. RDE Alex Brown (CHI) - Brown manages to fly under the radar every year. But, you will be hard pressed to find a more consistent defensive lineman. Brown has never had more than 7 sacks in a season, but he usually finishes in the 5-7 sack range with decent tackle numbers. These numbers may not seem very impressive but, in my scoring system, Brown scored the 21st most points for a defensive lineman. With the unfornate passing of Gaines Adams, Brown should remain the every-game starter at defensive end for the Bears.

27. RDE Cliff Avril (DET) - Avril was one of my top sleepers heading into the 2009 season and, man, did he make me look like a jackass. However, I'm still a believer in Avril and his value will definitely increase if the Lions take DT Suh or McCoy in the upcoming NFL draft. This is definitely one of those high risk/reward picks. S

28. LDE Osi Umenyiora (NYG) - It remains to be seen who will be the starting defensive left end for the 2010 season in New York. I have a suspicion that the underdog, Mathias Kiwanuka, will somehow grab the starting spot. However, Osi has come out and said that he will retire if he isn't the starter in 2010. This obviously may have some influence on the Giants decision. DSC

29. RDE Derrick Harvey (JAX) - Owners have been waiting for Harvey to breakout since he was drafted with the 8th overall pick in the 2008 NFL draft. This has failed to happen yet but Harvey did play well down the stretch last season and, if he can manage to put things together, he could be a top 20 lineman in the future. If you're feeling risky, this may be a good pick for you. S

30. RDE John Abraham (ATL) - This year was, perhaps, the worst season of Abraham's career. Abraham is getting older and is starting to be relegated to passing situations only. Many owners think Abraham is done and consequently his perceived value will be greatly diminished heading into 2010. However, many forget that it was only one year ago when Abraham had 16.5 sacks. I think Abraham may still be worth a late-round flier. R

31. LDE Shaun Ellis (NYJ) - Ellis had a nice year and seemed to thrive under new, defensive-minded, head coach Rex Ryan. I'm always a little bit skeptical of 3-4 DEs such as Ellis. However, Ellis has proven throughout his career that he is a top 30 defensive lineman.

32. LDE Adewale Ogunleye (CHI) - The unfortunate passing of Gaines Adams means that the Bears will likely retain "O-Gun" for the 2010 season. I like him for his consistency (8 straight years with 5 sacks or more), however, he doesn't have a ton of upside at this point in his career. FA

Tier 7

33. RDE Everette Brown (CAR) - Chances are good that Julius Peppers won't be a Carolina Panther next season. This is great news for Everette Brown as he would naturally slide into the starting RDE position. Brown is a very talented player and could be a great defensive end in the NFL. Keep in mind though that he is highly inexperienced and that it usually takes defensive ends a year or so to establish themselves. S

34. LDE William Hayes (TEN) - It looks as though the Titans will rid themselves of RDE Kyle Vanden Bosch this offseason making Hayes the #1 defensive lineman in Tennessee. Hayes showed flashes of brilliance last season and I like for him to improve upon his sack total of four from last year. S

35. RDE Darryl Tapp (SEA) - IDP owners have been waiting for Tapp to blossom into a top 15 defensive lineman for the last couple of years and it just hasn't happended. Tapp had an off-year last year by only registering 2.5 sacks. The defensive line situation in Seattle is a little unsettled right now with the possible retirement of Patrick Kerney. If Tapp can garner a starting defensive end spot, he is worth a late-round flier. Otherwise, I wouldn't put much stock into his value. FA, DSC

36. LDE Connor Barwin (HOU) - As my fellow FFManiaxs college Sean Haugh says, Barwin is "nasty." He has the intangibles and the intelligence to be a successful defensive end, he just needs to develop some moves. Playing opposite of All-Pro defensive end Mario Williams will definitely help Barwin develop more quickly. S

37. RDT Kevin Williams (MIN) - Williams' sack totals weren't off-base with his previous years accumulation. However, he had a career-low in tackles. I attribute these low tackle numbers to Williams being unhealthy for a large part of the 2nd half of the season. Tackle-wise, I think Williams will substantially improve next season and I foresee a similar sack total.

38. RDE Glen Dorsey (KC) - There is no doubting Dorsey's talent. However, he is severly miscast in Kansas City's 3-4 defensive scheme. He's managed only 2 sacks in 2 years. For as bad as Dorsey's been though, he still ranked as the 38th scoring lineman in my scoring system in large part due to his above average tackle numbers. With Romeo Crennel coming to town as KC's new defensive coordinator, I expect Dorsey to generate more than 1 sack next year and to produce a good amount of tackles. Dorsey could be a nice late-round steal. S

39. LDT Jonathan Babineaux (ATL) - Both Jonathan Babineaux and Kroy Biermann emerged this season for the Falcons. It's difficult to tell which player (if any) is the real deal and which one is the fluke. Even though he is a defensive tackle, I would bet on Babineaux being the better play in 2010. He was a standout at Iowa and was fairly highly touted in the draft. He was fairly consistent throughout the 2009 season and registered a nice sack total of six from his interior position and finished with the 19th most points for a defensive lineman in my scoring system. I don't think he'll have quite as good of a year next season, but he's still should be a solid low DL3/high DL4.

40. RDE Kyle Vanden Bosch (TEN) - If you read my articles, you probably no that I don't have much love for KVB. Hence, the #39 ranking. I think he is highly overrated and doesn't deserve to be among the top 30 defensive lineman. Tennessee realizes that Vanden Bosch is going to struggle without Haynesworth and, as a result, they more than likely will not resign him. I figure some team will give Bosch a starting spot and if he can land on a team with a good interior defensive lineman, he could return to prominance. I doubt it though. FA, B

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Labels: 2010 IDP Draft Rankings

Wednesday, January 13, 2010

2010 IDP Draft Rankings - Linebackers

I know it's super early for 2010 IDP rankings. However, I always like to start them early and get a foundation built. I will continually update these rankings throughout the offseason to reflect changes in free agency, defensive schemes, defensive playing time, rookie draft selections, etc.

I would also love to get feedback from my readers. Often times, we get stuck in our own philosophies and tendencies. So, it's nice to get a different perspective on things. Your comments will definitely influence my rankings.

Drafting Philosophy:
Linebackers are undoubtedly the staples of a fantasy defense. However, I believe many owners often times misjudge value at this position. If you aren't able to grab a "Tier 1" or "Tier 2" linebacker, then I would wait on drafting a linebacker until the later rounds. In my scoring system, the difference between the 2nd leading point scorer for linebackers, Jon Beason, and the next highest scoring linebacker, James Laurinaitis, was 51 points. Conversely, only 51 points separated Laurinaitis from the 25th ranked linebacker Dhani Jones. This stat shows that after the 1st two tiers of linebackers, the fantasy production is very similar. Hence, why my "Tier 3" is so large.

In addition, IDP studs always emerge at the linebacker position during the early part of the season (e.g. David Hawthorne, Brian Cushing, Clint Session, Stephen Tulloch, etc.).With this being said, I sometimes like to have a player at linebacker who I feel is expendable in order to pick up a potential linebacker stud off of the waiver wire during the season.

This clip just shows you that even the most calm and collected QB in the NFL loses his cool once in a while: Peyton Manning Goes Off on Saturdays Too

Scoring System:
Solo Tackle = 2 points
Assist = 1 point
Sack = 7 points
Interception = 12 points
Fumble Recovery = 5 points

Key:
FA = 2010 Free Agent
DSC = Possible Defensive Scheme Change
S = Sleeper/Undervalued Player
B = Bust/Overvalued Player
R = Injury Risk

Tier 1

1. RILB Patrick Willis (SF) - Willis is the obvious number one linebacker heading into the 2010 season. In his first three seasons in the league, he has averaged 120 solo tackles, 36 assists, and 3 sacks. You won't find a more consistent and reliable linebacker then Pat.

2. MLB Jon Beason (CAR) – For some reason, some IDP owners have lost a little faith in Beason. I haven't at all. He played most of the season injured and he still registered career highs in total tackles, sacks, and INTs with 142 total tackles, 3 sacks, and 3 INTs. He's the best fantasy linebacker not named "Patrick Willis."

Tier 2

3. MLB Paul Posluszny (BUF) – Admittedly, I have a bit of a man-crush on "Pos." Who could resist those long blond locks? Joking aside, Posluszny was a beast this season. In my scoring system, he averaged 20 points per game which made him the fifth highest scoring linebacker by average. He only played 12 games this season due to an injury in Week 1. If you extrapolate his numbers out to a full season, he would have had 116 solo tackles, 30 assists, and 4 INTs. He has all the intangibles to make for a great fantasy linebacker; he plays on a bad defense, he doesn't have a ton of competition in the front seven for tackles, and he has a non-stop motor. If he can stay healthy, I foresee Paul being a top five linebacker next year. DSC, S, R

Feb. 10 Update: The Bills switch to a 3-4 system should actually improve Posluszny's value especially if they use a two-gap system. By using this type of system, Posluszny will have to fend off list lineman and will have an easier route to the ball carrier.

4. MLB James Laurinaitis (STL) – I was really big on Laurinaitis coming into the 2009 season. He plays in a position in St. Louis that has proven to be very fruitful for fantasy owners over the last several seasons. Will Witherspoon, a mediocre fantasy player in my opinion, put up solid fantasy numbers there for years. Laurinaitis is much more talented than Witherspoon and it showed this season. With a full year under his belt in the NFL, Laurinaitis should be able to improve upon his top 6 2009 numbers.

5. RILB D’Qwell Jackson (CLE) – As far as pure tackling production is concerned, Jackson is about as good as they get. Not only does he compile a massive amount of solo tackles, he compiles a ton of assists as well. If he hadn’t gotten hurt early in the season this year, he could have finished as the #1 or #2 overall LB in a tackle-heavy league. Jackson is a free agent this year, but the Browns will more than likely resign him. If they do, don’t hesitate to grab him somewhat early in your 2010 fantasy draft, especially if you're in a tackle-heavy league. FA

6. MLB Barrett Ruud (TB) – I personally think Ruud is a tad overrated. However, over the last three years, he has proven to be one of the most consistent fantasy linebackers in the league by averaging 131 total tackles per year. When drafting linebackers early, I look for reliability and consistency and this is what Ruud brings. FA

7. MLB Curtis Lofton (ATL) - I don't have Lofton ranked as high as others do because he showed some signs of wearing down over the last four games of the season. Lofton started the season out hot and was a top five linebacker. However, he finished as the 16th best linebacker in my scoring system. I like that he is a 4-3 MLB because they tend to produce the most consistent fantasy results and Lofton is still young and last year was his first year as the leader of the defense. With this being said, he should be able to improve upon his 2009 totals and be a top 8 linebacker next season. B

8. RILB David Harris (NYJ) – Many fantasy owners were slightly disappointed in Harris’ production this year and I can’t figure out why. He had 131 total tackles and 5.5 sacks (both career highs). His production did slightly fall off towards the end of the season, but he was playing through an injury. He still finished as a top eight linebacker in my scoring system and should thrive under the tutorledge of defensive mastermind Rex Ryan.

Tier 3

9. MLB Kirk Morrison (OAK) – Morrison is perhaps the most underrated fantasy linebacker in the NFL. He’s finished with more than 90 solo tackles in each of the five years he’s been in the league. However, he is a free agent this year and the majority of his value resides in the fact that he plays on the Raiders defense, which has made relative unknown middle linebackers, like Greg Biekert, into fantasy studs. If he resigns with the Raiders, he will remain a top 10 linebacker. But if he signs with another team, his fantasy value will take a serious hit. FA, S

10. MLB Justin Durant (JAX) – I was big on Durant all year and, if not for injuries, he would have more than likely finished as a top 15 linebacker. He was only under five solos in three of his 13 games while averaging 6.2 solos per game.I don’t think the Jaguars will be much better next season then they were this season and consequently their defense will be on the field quite a bit. In addition, coach Jack Del Rio has said that there are moving solely back to an aggressive 4-3 defensive scheme. This is the same scheme in which MLB Mike Peterson thrived in 2004 and 2005. Look for Durant to have a very solid 2010 season. DSC, S

11. SLB Brian Cushing (HOU) – I was a bit skeptical of Cushing early in the season because of the historical lack of fantasy production from strong side linebackers. However, Cushing ended up having a fantastic year and his fantasy production actually improved as the year progressed. I still remain a little leery of Cushing because his fantasy numbers were inflated due to a number of big plays and his tackling production was a bit shaky; he had five games with three solos or fewer and nine games with five solos or fewer. Cushing may be slightly overvalued in 2010 but still remains a top 12 linebacker. B

12. RILB D.J. Williams (DEN) – Many IDP websites project Williams as a low LB1/high LB2 and I agree with this projection. Williams finished as the 10th best linebacker in my scoring system and he was a very consistent point scorer throughout the year. However, Williams doesn't produce a ton of big plays. Essentially, he is slightly more productive version of Patriots linebacker Jerod Mayo.

13. MLB London Fletcher-Baker (WAS) – Say what you want about LFB; I love the guy. For eight seasons in a row, he’s finished with over 90 solo tackles and 25 assists. You don't get any more consistent than that. The fact that he will be 35 next season doesn’t bother me much at all. Hell, he was 34 last year and he had 142 total tackles. How much difference could one year make? The only thing I would be concerned about is the Redskins possible change to a 3-4 defensive scheme. This would hinder LFB's tackling production since he doesn't have the size required for an inside 3-4 linebacker to be able to take on opposing offensive lineman. DSC

14. LILB Ray Lewis (BAL) – Along the same lines at LFB, I really don’t care that Lewis will be 35 entering into the 2010 season. Did you see this guy in the playoffs this year? He looks like he’s 25. I’ve owned Lewis numerous times in my ten years as an owner in IDP leagues and he’s never let me down. Lewis may fall in next year's draft because of his age. If he does, he could be a great middle-round value.

15. MLB DeMeco Ryans (HOU) – I think Ryans will give owners a lot of value in 2010. He was a bit inconsistent this season and consequently some owners have lost faith in him. However, the fact remains, he actually improved upon his 2008 fantasy production by putting up 93 solo tackles and 30 assists. Ryans could be a nice middle-to-late round steal. FA, S

16. RILB Jerod Mayo (NE) – Mayo is one of the most consistent fantasy producers in the league and although he doesn’t have a very high point ceiling, he doesn’t have a very low floor either. There isn't much competition in New England's front seven for tackles, so Mayo's production should remain relatively constant. He's a fairly safe bet for 95-100 solo tackles. If you’re looking for a pick with little risk, Mayo is a great option.

17. RILB Karlos Dansby (ARI) – Dansby was, week in and week out, an extremely consistent point scorer in 2009. He didn’t have many huge games, but he didn’t have any games that killed his owners either. Dansby is a free agent heading into the 2010 season and rumors are that he may sign with another team. I really don't think this will hurt Dansby's value much. He has played in many different defensive schemes throughout his career and, therefore, he should have a short learning curve on a new team. FA

18. WLB Lance Briggs (CHI) – Briggs has been outperforming Brian “Big Name” Urlacher for years, as far as fantasy production is concerned. Over the last six years, Briggs has averaged 94 solo tackles and 22 assists. With Urlacher injured and another year slower, Briggs should remain the solid IDP producer he has been for the last several years.

19. MLB Jonathan Vilma (NO) – VILMA!!!!!!!!!!!!!! I thought Vilma had a pretty good year considering the New Orleans defense wasn’t on the field a ton this year and, when they were, teams were usually passing to play catch-up. Vilma doesn’t have much competition for tackles in New Orleans and will therefore remain a solid linebacker next year.

Tier 4

20. WLB Thomas Davis (CAR) – Davis was on his way to a monster season in 2009 before he suffered a season ending injury in week 9 against the Saints. Some people are worried about Davis’ early hot streak being a fluke. I’m not. He produced 92 solo tackles from his WLB position in Carolina in the 2008 season and with Carolina using more Cover 2 defensive schemes, his numbers were naturally going to rise. Davis' value is highly dependent on if he resigns with Carolina. If he does, he remains a top 20 linebacker. FA, S, R

21. MLB Stewart Bradley (PHI) – Coming into the 2009 season, I was very high on Bradley. In 2008, he showed flashes of brilliant defensive play and with SS Brian Dawkins signing with the Broncos last season, Bradley is in line to become the leader of the defense. I look for him to come back from his injury and put up solid LB2-LB3 numbers. S, R

22. MLB Stephen Tulloch (TEN) – Tulloch had a fantastic year and if these rankings were based purely on last year’s production, he would be a top 15-20 linebacker. However, Tulloch is a free agent and it remains to be seen where he will end up even though I feel he will resign with the Titans. Last year, Tulloch wasn’t an every-down linebacker (he came out in the nickel package) and if he goes to a team with less tackle opportunities, his numbers may take a substantial hit. FA

23. WLB Clint Session (IND) - Session could prove to be a great value pick next year. Before he went down with an injury in Week 15, he was a top 10 linebacker. Even though I don't think he will return to top 10 status next year, I still think Session is a top 25 linebacker. Indy plays a lot of Cover 2 which bodes well for Session at his WLB position. In addition, that position has proven to be a lucrative one for fantasy players in Indy (e.g. David Thornton, Mike Peterson). S

24. MLB DeAndre Levy (DET) – Lions defensive coordinator has announced that he wants Levy to be the starting MLB for the 2010 season. This is great news for Levy owners. DeAndre has been on the watchlists of many IDP owners since he was drafted with the 2nd pick in the 3rd round of last year's draft. He has the skills to be a solid NFL middle linebacker and will get plenty of tackle opportunities in Detriot. It may take him a few games to get used to playing the position. However, I still expect 85-95 solos out of him next season. S

25. LOLB LaMarr Woodley (PIT) – I tend to shy away from players who rely heavily on big plays (e.g. sacks). However, Woodley was an absolute stud the last eight weeks of the season. During this span, he registered 11.5 sacks. Admittingly, this is a high risk/reward pick. Next year, Woodley could end up with numbers similar to James Harrison’s 2008 campaign or Harrison could rebound and take away from Woodley’s numbers.

26. WLB Michael Boley (NYG) - If you look at Boley's 2009 stat line (66 solo tackles, 19 assists, and 2 sacks), you may be disappointed. However, Boley missed 5 games due to injury. If you extrapolate these numbers over 16 games, he would have finished with 96 solo tackles, 27 assists, and 3 sacks. These are D.J. Williams type numbers. In addition, the Giants just signed defensive coordinator Perry Fewell who tends to use the Tampa-2 scheme frequently. This should further increase Boley's value next season. DSC, S

Tier 5

27. RILB Nick Barnett (GB) – Barnett rebounded nicely from his season-ending knee injury in 2008. Over his seven years in the league, Barnett has proven to be one of the more consistent tackling linebackers in the league by averaging 86 solo tackles and 34 assists. Look for him to continue to perform well in Dom Capers' 3-4 defensive system.

28. SLB Chad Greenway (MIN) – Greenway, along with Brian Cushing, are oddities in the IDP world because of their solid production out of the SLB position. Greenway finished as the 23rd ranked linebacker in my scoring system by registering 99 total tackles, 3 fumble recoveries, and 3 interceptions. With E.J. Henderson slowed down somewhat because of injury, Greenway may have a slight uptake in production next year.

29. WLB Geno Hayes (TB) – This is one of my top sleeper picks for next year. Hayes came on like a banshee during the last few games of the 2009 campaign. He was the #6 overall linebacker in my scoring system over the last eight weeks of the season and the WLB in Tampa Bay has proven to be lucrative (i.e. Derrick Brooks). Keep your eye on this kid! S

30. MLB Gary Brackett (IND) – Brackett has been one of fantasy football’s best kept secrets the last few years and although he doesn't have much big play upside, when healthy, Brackett is capable of putting of solid low LB2/high LB3 numbers in a tackle-heavy league. The emergence of Clint Session doesn't bother me much because there are enough tackles to go around for two solid tackling linebackers on the Colts defense. FA, S

31. MLB Lofa Tatupu (SEA) –With the sudden emergence of David Hawthorne and the drafting of Aaron Curry, many people are starting to forget about Lofa Tatupu, which could be a mistake. The Seahawks gave Tatupu a six-year, $42 million contract extension and he will remain the leader and focal point of the defense. He managed over 100 total tackles in three of his first four seasons in the league. He was injured for pretty much the whole 2009 season but should return completely healthy in 2010. The Seahawks are contemplating moving to a 3-4 defense to get David Hawthorne on the field more. Even if they use more 3-4 packages, Tatupu will still be an every-down linebacker. Consequently, at this point in time, I can't justify having a one-year performer like Hawthorne ranked higher than a proven reliable fantasy linebacker like Lofa. DSC, R

Tier 6

32. ROLB James Harrison (PIT) – The one stat that concerns me about Harrison is that he only registered two sacks in the final nine games of the season. On the other hand, he did have eight sacks in his first seven games. Even though I believe the LaMarr Woodley has now become THE sack guy in Pittsburgh, I also believe that there are enough sacks to feed Harrison as well. In addition, Harrison tends to generate a decent amount of tackles for a big-play linebacker (he's averaged 93 total tackles over the last three seasons) and even though he had an off-year, he still finished in the top 30 linebackers in my scoring system. B

33. MLB Brian Urlacher (CHI) – Urlacher remains one of the most overrated fantasy linebackers in the game. He started showing signs of wearing down in 2008 when he failed to register over 100 tackles and then he missed pretty much the entire 2009 season with a wrist injury. He is expected to be fully healthy by the time offseason workouts begin though. On the positive side, Urlacher is the leader of the Bears defense and has a non-stop motor when it comes to tracking down the ball carrier. I think Briggs is the best fantasy linebacker option in Chicago, but Urlacher can still provide some good value, just not top 20 value anymore. B, R

34. MLB Derrick Johnson (KC) – For some reason the Chiefs thought it would be a good idea to relegate Johnson to playing only in nickel situations and start mediocre linebacker Demorrio Williams. Johnson is a very talented player and deserves to be an every-down player. He is a restricted free this year and many NFL teams and scouts have him ranked very highly on their free agent boards. If Johnson stays in KC and they give him a starting ILB spot, he could very well be a top 20 linebacker. Hell, if Demorrio can put 117 total tackles, just think what Johnson could do. Even if he goes to another team, Johnson could provide good value. It all depends on his playing time. FA, S

35. MLB David Hawthorne (SEA) – Hawthorne was a top five linebacker last season and he didn't start five games. However, the Seahawks gave Lofa Tatupu a ton of money and he will be back starting at the MLB in 2010. In remains to be seen what type of defensive scheme the Seahawks will employ in 2010 and what role Hawthorne will play in that scheme. If he can wrestle away a starting WLB position in a 4-3 or an inside linebacker position in a 3-4, he could prove to be valuable. FA, DSC, B

36. RILB Stephen Cooper (SD) –I've always been a fan of Stephen Cooper. For the last couple seasons he has been grossly undervalued. He started off the 2009 season with a bang by averaging 9.5 total tackles per game for the first 8 games. He quickly cooled off however in the 2nd half of the season as it appeared fellow linebackers Tim Dobbins and Brandon Siler began more heavily competing with Cooper for tackles. The Chargers have a very young and talented linebacking crew and I'm concerned that Cooper may have a difficult time establishing himself as the focal point of the defense in 2010.

37. MLB E.J. Henderson (MIN) –Henderson reminds me of a poor man's Karlos Dansby and is capable of putting up similar numbers when healthy. E.J. suffered a horrendous leg injury in week 13 against the Arizona Cardinals and won't be the starter when entering into training camp. I personally think Henderson will regain his starting position by the time the regular season rolls around, but he's a risky pick because you don't know how well his leg is going to hold up. R

38. WLB Ernie Sims (DET) –Many people have given up on Sims after an injury-riddled couple of years in the league. I'm not one of those people. When healthy, Sims is one of the more solid run-stopping linebackers in the league and put up good fantasy numbers in each of his first three seasons by averaging a whopping 124 total tackles per year. I have a suspicion that the Lions may try and trade Sims next year due to their surplus at linebacker. This would actually help improve Sims' fantasy value. Sims could be a sneaky play next season if he can correct his health issues. He still has nice upside. R

39. ROLB Elvis Dumervil (DEN) – Dumervil is a player that will be highly overvalued heading into the 2010 season. He was the sack leader was 17 sacks. However, he still only finished as the 31st total point scorer for linebackers in my scoring system, which actually has some big play slant to it. I don't expect Dumervil to have 17 sacks again next season and he doesn't produce enough tackles to warrant serious consideration as a top 35 linebacker. If you're in a league that rewards heavily for sacks then Dumervil may be a more serious consideration. FA, B

40. SLB Aaron Curry (SEA) –Curry is one of the better linebacking talents to come through the draft in recent years. However, he struggled to find a role within Seattle's defense and consequently was riding the pine for a large part of many games. The Seahawks have overhauled their coaching staff and I look for them to make every attempt to give Curry close to full-time playing status. If he can bring it all together, he could be a top 25 linebacker. That's a big if though. DSC

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Labels: 2010 IDP Draft Rankings

2010 IDP Draft Rankings - Defensive Backs

I know it's super early for 2010 IDP rankings. However, I always like to start them early and get a foundation built. I will continually update these rankings throughout the offseason to reflect changes in free agency, defensive schemes, defensive playing time, rookie draft selections, etc.

I would also love to get feedback from my readers. Often times, we get stuck in our own philosophies and tendencies. So, it's nice to get a different perspective on things. Your comments will definitely influence my rankings.

Drafting Philosophy:
Defensive backs have the most variability in point production from year-to-year. In other words, your top 20 defensive backs in 2010 could be quite different from your top 20 defensive backs in 2009 (especially in "big play leagues").

Much of this variability is because, many times, a defensive back's production is heavily tied to the performance of that specific team's front seven. Their production is also heavily tied to how they are used in the defensive scheme (especially safeties). For example, Roman Harper started off the 2009 season very well. However, after both of New Orleans' cornerbacks got injured, they started playing Harper in coverage more as opposed to bringing him up close to the line of scrimmage to stop the run. Consequently, his tackle numbers severely dipped.

In addition, the defensive back position, more than any other position has the most substantial amount of fantasy producers on the waiver wire because many unexpected fantasy performers emerge from the defensive back position throughout the season (e.g. Bernard Pollard).

With this being said, I find it hard to use one of my first defensive picks on a defensive back. In reality, there aren't many "locks" at that this position as there are at the linebacker position (e.g. Patrick Willis, Jon Beason, London Fletcher, etc.). Therefore, I usually try to grab a solid veteran fantasy producer like LCB Antoine Winfield or SS Brian Dawkins and get riskier at this position with my other picks. Not only does this free me up to use higher draft picks on other defensive positions, but it also allows me to more easily drop players during the season to pick up potential defensive back studs off of the waiver wire.

And in case you didn't love Brett Favre enough, here is a short little video clip: Brett Favre Doing His Rendition of "Pants on the Ground."

Scoring System:
Solo Tackle = 2 points
Assist = 1 point
Sack = 7 points
Interception = 12 points
Fumble Recovery = 5 points

Key:
FA = 2010 Free Agent
DSC = Possible Defensive Scheme Change
S = Sleeper/Undervalued Player
B = Bust/Overvalued Player
R = Injury Risk

Tier 1

1. FS Eric Weddle (SD) - Weddle was the number one defensive back on most fantasy rankings heading into the 2009 season. His fantasy numbers took a hit this year because of lingering injury issues. Heading into next season injury-free, he should be able to rebound next year and reclaim his spot as the top fantasy defensive back. R

2. SS Bernard Pollard (HOU) - What a story this is; after being cut by the Chiefs before the season started, Pollard signed with the Texans in Week 4 and wasted no time in becoming a fantasy stud. In 14 games, Pollard had 82 solo tackles, 19 assists, 3 FRs, 4 INTs, 1.5 sacks, and 2 defensive TDs. I wouldn't expect 2 defensive TDs again, but Pollard does provide the ultimate mix of dependable tackling and big play production. FA

3. SS Tyvon Branch (OAK) - Branch had a very nice tackling year by registering 97 solo tackles and 26 assists and is a top 5 safety in tackling-heavy leagues. Most of his value resides in the fact that he plays in the SS position in Oakland which has proven to be a very lucrative position in the past (e.g. Gibril Wilson). As long as Branch can hold off second round draft pick, Mike Mitchell, he's worth an early round selection.

4. SS Yeremiah Bell (MIA) - Over the last two seasons, Bell has averaged over 95 solo tackles; it doesn't get much better than that for a defensive back. Bell is often times brought up close to the line of scrimmage for run support and is therefore used in a similar fashion to that of a linebacker. Bell is one of the safest choices at the defensive back position. You can expect 90+ solo tackles again next season.

5. FS Oshiomogho Atogwe (STL) - Atogwe is one of the best ballhawks in the league. He always seems to be around the ball and, consequently, he does a wonderful job of producing big plays as well as solid tackle numbers. Playing on the Rams is an added bonus since their defense is consistently on the field for much of the game. Atogwe should remain in St. Louis and, now that he's healthy, return to top 5 form. FA

6. SS Brian Dawkins (DEN) - Yes, Dawkins is old as dirt (36 to be exact). However, you will be hard-pressed to find a more consistent fantasy defensive back. Over his nine seasons in the league, Dawkins has consistently been a top 20 performer and his move to Denver has obviously taken his value to another level. I wouldn't expect 95 solo tackles again (a career high) but, as long as he doesn't retire, Dawkins looks to be a solid play heading into next season.

Tier 2

7. SS Roman Harper (NO) - Harper started off the season extremely hot. He was consistently putting up 7-9 total tackles per week. However, because of injuries at both cornerback positions, New Orleans stopped putting Harper in the box and used him more in coverage. This hurt his overall 2009 numbers (they were still solid). With the cornerbacks healthy again, look for Harper to further improve upon his 2009 numbers.FA

8. FS Dashon Goldson (SF) - Goldson got the opportunity to become an every game starter this season and he ran with it. I really like this kid. He gives you a good combination of tackles (95 total tackles) and big plays (4 INTs and 3 sacks). Under defensive-minded head coach Mike Singeltary, Goldson is only going to get better. S

9. FS Louis Delmas (DET) - Delmas, in my opinion, will come into the 2010 draft, being slightly overvalued. Yes, he was the 4th leading scorer for defensive backs in my scoring system. However, those numbers are highly inflated to due to two defensive touchdowns and a safety. When looking purely at his tackle numbers, he had 64 solos tackles and 29 assists and only 2 INTs which are decent, but not fantastic numbers. I look for Delmas to improve upon his tackle numbers next season but at the expense of his big play production. B

Tier 3

10. LCB Charles Woodson (GB) - I typically don't like drafting "big play" cornerbacks like Woodson because their production often times varies from year-to-year. However, Woodson is a rarity, in that he has shown that he can come up with big plays year in and year out. In addition, he had 71 solo tackles last year which is great for a cornerback. Although, I wouldn't expect the same level of tackle production next year, Woodson deserves to be a top 15 pick.

11. FS Antoine Bethea (IND) - Bethea has managed to string together two top 20 seasons in a row from his free safety position. Much of the attention in Indy goes to the oft-injured SS Bob Sanders. However, Bethea is the true fantasy star of the Colts secondary. Look for Bethea to continue his trend of top 20 finishes in 2010. FA

12. LCB Antoine Winfield (MIN) - Winfield's perceived value will probably take a slight hit heading into the 2010 draft because his overall 2009 stats were below average due to injury problems. In my opinion, Winfield is the best tackling cornerback in the league and he plays in a defensive scheme that uses some Tampa-2, which gives Winfield above average tackle opportunities. With this being said, Winfield, when healthy, is a low DB1/high DB2. S, R

13. LCB Charles Tillman (CHI) - Tillman's production dropped substantially in 2009 in large part due to reoccurring injuries. Tillman is one of the top 5 tackling fantasy cornerbacks and he also provides decent big play upside. If he can stay healthy, he remains a top 15 selection for defensive backs. R

14. SS Troy Polamalu (PIT) - Polamalu is overrated in the same way as SS Bob Sanders. He's a fantastic NFL player in real life but when it comes to fantasy football, he's more of a tier 3 type of player. "Mr. Head and Shoulders" does have a knack for finding the ball, however, and has top 15 value if he can manage to stay healthy for a full season. With all this in mind, don't be fooled by the big name and reach for Polamalu too early though (i.e. Tier 1 or Tier 2). B, R

15. SS Adrian Wilson (ARI) - I remember the days when Adrian Wilson was the best DB since sliced bread (circa 2004-2006). His disappointing 2007 and 2008 seasons left Wilson undrafted in many IDP leagues in 2009. However, under new defensive coordinator Bill Davis' aggressive defensive scheme, Wilson has had a resurgence. I like Wilson's big play upside along with his run-stopping ability. Consequently, I have Wilson reentering the top 20. Welcome back!

16. SS/WLB Bryan Scott (BUF) - Honestly, I have no idea where to rank Scott because, as of right now, he's a man without a position. In my scoring system, Scott averaged over 17 points per game largely due to the Bills switching him to WLB during the middle of the season. If the Bills opt to use Scott in this hybrid SS/LB role again next year, he will be a top 10 defensive back. However, his value slides quite substantially if he is moved back solely to the SS position (top 20-30). There's also a chance he doesn't start at all. With this being said, Scott's ranking is likely to change during the offseason, so keep your eye on his status. FA, DSC, S

17. SS Jermaine Phillips (TB) - Phillips was on many IDP owners watchlists when the season began and he probably would have had a solid season if he had not went down with a season-ending injury in week 2. In his place, Tanard Jackson, but together a top 10 year. I foresee Phillips picking up where Jackson left off next season assuming he can overcome his personal legal issues and remain the starting SS in Tampa. If not, then Tanard Jackson will more than likely slide into this #17 spot. FA, R

Tier 4

18. FS Dawan Landry (BALT) - Landry was used more in stopping the run this year than in previous years and his tackle numbers reflected this fact. Landry had 100 total tackles and he threw in 5 INTs. I expect some subsidence of his tackle numbers but not enough to bump him out of the top 20. In addition, the Jets have shown some offseason interest in obtaining Landry; going to the Jets could improve his value even further. FA

19. FS Darren Sharper (NO) - Many readers may be wondering why I have the #3 2009 point scorer for DBs listed so low: his numbers were significantly inflated. Sharper had 4 defensive touchdowns in 2009 and 9 interceptions. You take away those 4 defensive touchdowns and Sharper falls back to a mid-level option at best. And I'm willing to bet my left nut that he doesn't have 4 defensive TDs again next year. OK, maybe not my nut. But, you get the point. FA, B

20. RCB Richard Marshall (CAR) - Marshall, along with Charles Tillman and Antoine Winfield, is one of the top 5 tackling cornerbacks in the league. In all four years in the league, Marshall has had 68 solo tackles or more and usually throws in a couple of sacks and a couple of INTs. He has a fairly significant chance of being a top 25 performer every year. However, he is a free agent and much of his value resides in the fact that Carolina uses the Tampa-2 defensive scheme quite a bit. If he goes to another team, he will more than likely fall out of the top 30. FA

21. SS Erik Coleman (ATL) - If you're in a tackle-heavy league, Coleman is one of the better options you have at this position. In 2009, he registered 116 total tackles. In fact Coleman has had 100 total tackles or more in 5 out of his 6 seasons in the NFL. On the down side, he doesn't generate many big-plays. S

22. FS Jordan Babineaux (SEA) - Mr. Babineaux finished as the 17th higest scoring defensive back in my scoring system last year. He started off the season slowly, however, he gained momentum as the season progressed and ended up finishing with 105 total tackles. Babineaux is a solid DB3 entering into next season. DSC

23. FS Danieal Manning (CHI) - Through the first 10 games of the season, Manning was one of the best fantasy safeties in the league. However, he was benched by Head Coach Lovie Smith in Week 11 for blowing too many coverages. It remains to be seen how the Bears will use Manning moving forward. However, I expect him to be the starter next year and to put up top 25 numbers. But, lets wait and see.

Tier 5

24. SS Brandon Meriweather (NE) - Although Meriweather finished within the top 15 DBs for points scored, almost 1/4 points came in one game. With this being said, I really don't think Meriweather is a top 20 defensive back. However, he doesn't have a ton of competition for tackles in New England and he's young and still learning, so he remains in the top 25. B

25. FS LaRon Landry (WASH) - Landry made significant strides last season in becoming a top 30 defensive back. He managed to post a career high in solo tackles with 76 and he missed the last game of the season. I expect the former sixth overall pick to make further strides in 2010 and possibly crack the top 25. DSC

26. SS Kenny Phillips (NYG) - Phillips entered the 2009 season on many IDP sleeper lists and was performing well until he went down with a season-ending knee injury in week 2. Backup safety, C.C. Brown, had some monster games in Phillips' absence (back-to-back double digit solo games in week 6 and 7), granted much of that production was due to Brown having absolutely no cover skills. If Phillips can fully recover from his 2009 injury, he should have good value moving into the 2010 season. DSC, R, S

27. SS Chinedum "Nedu" Ndukwe (CIN) - "Nedu" put up some nice tackle numbers while filling in for Roy "Horse Collar" Williams. In the 14 games that he started, he posted 70 solo tackles, 29 assists, 1 sack, and 2 interceptions. The Bengals have stated that resigning SS Roy Williams isn't a priority which means that Ndukwe will likely become the starter next season. I wouldn't expect a ton of big plays out of Chinedum, but I project him for 75-85 solo tackles and 20-25 assists.

28. SS Mike Brown (KC) - Mike or "Michelle" Brown, as I like to call him, surprisingly finished in the top 10 for points scored at this position in 2009. Much of this was due to his above average tackle opportunities (KC's defense was on the field a lot). I think the Chiefs are going to be much improved next year and consequently Browns numbers will take a hit. And there's always a good chance he gets hurt. Hence, the lower ranking. FA, R

29. RCB Cortland Finnegan (TEN) - Finnegan, similar to teammate Nick Harper, is a cornerback at which many opposing QBs love to throw at. Consequently, Finnegan typically has above average tackle and interception opportunities. For the second straight season, Finnegan had 5 INTs. For these reasons, Finnegan makes it into the top 30.

30. SS Quintin Mikell (PHI) - I've never been a huge fan of Mikell's. It seems as though every week in which I pick him up, he burns me. However, over the course of a full season his numbers tend to average out. In fact, in each of the last two seasons, Mikell has finished with top 30 numbers and he set a career high for total tackles last season with 97. He's usually a dependable DB3.

31. SS Chris Hope (TEN) - Hope is one of the more consistent defensive backs in the league. He doesn't have a very high point ceiling but he is usually good for 75-90 solo tackles and 3 or 4 interceptions which, in a typical year, would place him around the outskirts of the top 30 defensive back point producers. If you are risk-averse, Hope is probably a good selection for you.

Tier 6

32. LCB Darrelle Revis (NYJ) - In my opinion, Revis is the best shutdown cornerback in the NFL, which is usually bad from a fantasy standpoint because opposing QBs tend to throw away from him. However, Revis managed to intercept seven passes last year and five the year before that. He finished with the 25 most points for a defensive back last year. However, I think we will see a drop in his interception and tackle totals next year because teams will throw at him even less next year. B

33. FS Jairus Byrd (BUF) - Byrd was quite impressive will filling in for the injured Donte Whitner. He managed nine interceptions in games 5 through 14 of the regular season. It's still unclear who will be starting in Buffalo's secondary. If I had to guess, I would assume Donte Whitner will be starting at SS and Byrd will be starting at FS with George Wilson rotating in on nickel packages. If Byrd can improve upon his tackle numbers, he could be a very nice late-round selection. DSC

34. SS Bob Sanders (IND) - Sanders reminds me a lot of Troy Polamalu. He is a great NFL player and solid fantasy defensive back when healthy. However, he is hardly ever healthy. If he could string together a full season of games, he would likely be a top 20 DB. Chances are good this won't happen, so temper you're expectations. If you're in need of a playmaker and are willing to take a substantial risk, Sanders is your guy. B, R

35. SS Michael Lewis (SF) - Lewis provides consistency at a position where that trait is difficult to find. He has averaged 65+ solo tackles for six of the last seven seasons. He doesn't have much big play upside however and the emergence of Dashon Goldson may hurt his numbers slightly. Nonetheless, Lewis still remains a decent DB3 option.

36. SS Donte Whitner (BUF) - Overall, Whitner hasn't lived up to his hype coming out of college. However, I firmly believe that he would have had a very solid year if he hadn't got injured in week 3. The safety positions in Buffalo seem to be a gold mine for fantasy points, however, their secondary is quite crowded right now, and it remains to be seen who the starters will be. I think Whitner is the favorite to start at SS next season ahead of George Wilson. DSC, FA, S

37. RCB Cedric Griffin (MIN) - Griffin would be ranked about 10 spots higher if he didn't tear his ACL in the NFC championship. This injury will likely sideline for the start of the season. If you're league has a big bench or allows you to IR a player, Griffin could be a nice late-round selection. He has averaged 76 solo tackles per year over the last three years and plays in a Cover 2 scheme that gives him ample tackle opportunities. R

38. LCB DeAngelo Hall (WAS) - Hall's performance has been pretty steady the last three seasons. He's usually good for around 60 solo tackles, 10 assists, and 4 or 5 interceptions. His 2009 numbers were slightly lower than usual because he missed three games due to injury. I would expect Hall to finish within the top 40 defensive backs next season. DSC

39. FS Kerry Rhodes (NYJ) - In my opinion, Rhodes is a highly overrated fantasy player. He really hasn't been a viable fantasy option since 2007 and he had the lowest tackle totals of his career last year. I'm only ranking him at this spot because he has showed that he could be an elite fantasy defensive back in the past and although I think Rhodes won't return to that elite status, he does have the benefit of playing under defensive guru Rex Ryan. B

40. FS Pat Chung (NE) - "Wang" Chung was a high draft selection of the Patriots last season and he will likely become the starting FS replacing Brandon McGowan. McGowan showed that this position could be productive from a fantasy standpoint and I believe Chung has the capability to produce low DB2/high DB3 numbers. However, he is young and inexperienced and it's hard to tell exactly when things will click for him. S

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Labels: 2010 IDP Draft Rankings

Sunday, January 31, 2010

2010 IDP Rookies to Watch

2010 IDP Sleepers (Undervalued Players)

2010 IDP Busts (Overvalued Players)

Saturday, January 16, 2010

2010 IDP Draft Rankings - Defensive Lineman

Wednesday, January 13, 2010

2010 IDP Draft Rankings - Linebackers

2010 IDP Draft Rankings - Defensive Backs

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